Research About Mechanism Of Generation And Countermeasures To The Deviation Between Forecasted And Actual Tax Revenue

Tax revenue forecast aims to speculate the future tax revenue,playing an important role in the total tax revenue,the collection and preparation of the budget,the fiscal and taxation system and other systems.In our recent finance research,we can find that there exists a certain degree of deviation between tax revenue budget number and the final number.What's more,with the continuous development of economy,the deviation between tax revenue budget number and the final number is growning bigger and bigger.In this paper,the author attends to discuss the common analysis tax revenue forecast with the actual tax revenue generating mechanism of the deviation from two aspects :tax forecast and tax collection and administration.This research will give more benefits on collecting pay taxes and carrying out the tax task.Therefore,this research has both theoretical and practical value.To enhance the accuracy of tax revenue forecast in China,we ought to change the base of traditional prediction method of increase and decrease,On contrast,we should take the econometric model to spectulate the future income.Based on tax revenue data of a city in anhui province as an example,the author trys to establish a simple linear regression model between the ecnomic output and tax revenue to find out the disadvantages in the practical applicationof the model.What's more,the author discusses an AR model,a simple linear regression model,that aims to spectulate the future income.Apart from the model,this paper analyzes deviation from other two aspects,that one is tax forecast and the other is administration of the specific process.At last,this paper put forward corresponding countermeasures to decrease the deviation.