The Research On Supply Chain Financing Risk Management Of Small And Medium Sized Enterprises Based On System Dynamics

Since reform and opening-up,our country’s minor enterprises have made outstanding contribution to the rapid development of our country’s economy,but they have been facing the development bottleneck problem that financing is difficult.The main reason is the for-profit commercial banks for avoiding financing risk are not willing to give loans to minor enterprises have low credit rate.In this context,the new supply chain financing mode emerges and finds out a new breakthrough for the financing of our country’s minor enterprises.The reason why supply chain financing is highly populated are the commercial banks make the core enterprise and the product of the enterprise as minor enterprises’ credit guarantee on the basis of fully reviewing management benefit of enterprise on supply chain,under this premise,they give loans to solve the financing dilemma of minor enterprises have low credit rate,which eventually realizes the mutual benefit between banks and enterprises.However,there is a lack of supply chain financing,commercial banks face the hidden dangers of financing risk when they loan to minor enterprises.Therefore,in this background,it is very realistic to research how commercial banks to avoid or minimize the financing risk and explore the optimization suggestions of supply chain financing’ s risk management of minor enterprises to realize the mutual benefit and win-win results between banks and enterprises.This paper makes the simulation modeling about supply chain financing’ s risk management based on the method of system dynamics.This paper first summarizes the theory of minor enterprises’ supply chain financing and system dynamics and analyzes the supply chain’s main financing models that are receivable financing mode,inventory financing mode and prepayment financing mode;then,the paper presents the characteristics of the supply chain financing risk,the principles of risk management and the processes of risk management;this paper analyzes the concepts and characteristics of system dynamics and analyzes the steps of modeling and simulation of system dynamics;based on the supply chain financing risk researched by this paper,the third chapter analyzes its causes that are mainly credit risk,policy risk,operational risk and market risk,which are also main risk index system that this paper builds supply chain financing’s risk management system model;then,in view of the risk factors,the paper treats commercial banks as the main research objects to makes the simulation modeling about supply chain financing’ s risk management of minor enterprises based on the theory of system dynamics.Then,in the part of example application,the paper treats Qingdao machinery minor enterprise park as the research object,simulating the impact of system of the bank’s risk supervision on the four big risks and finally gets the conclusion according to the model’s run results: 1)the commercial banks should strengthen themselves construction about financing risk monitoring system to avoid or minimize the loss that is made by the financing risk;2)from the long-term,if the financing enterprises want to get loans from banks,the most fundamental is to constantly increase the product’s sale growth rate,improve the product’s market share rate and enhance their own economic strength.