Research On The Risk Assessment Of PPP Project Of Rail Transit Based On The Perspective Of The Loan Bank In The Future Income

Project financing, as a new financing mode, effectively solve the problem of the lack of funds in the process of economic development in our country, has received more and more attention of government departments in China.This kind of financing mode is widely used in the large-scale infrastructure construction. PPP as a project financing mode, its core purpose is to carry out effective risk management, reasonable sharing of risk, and thus improve the success rate of project construction. In addition, although the PPP mode can reasonably share the risk, but due to the lack of risk management lead to the failure of the project financing case are numerous. The project funds used in the construction of the project are intensive, once the loss caused by the failure of the project is not measured, therefore, many scholars began to study the risk management of PPP project. In our country, because of its economic system is not perfect, the economic subject of risk management awareness is relatively weak, the risk management means and methods is less well understood, many studies still in qualitative evaluation or only depend on the experience of management of risk management. Risk assessment is the premise of risk management, This article from the perspective of bank loans, to study the risk assessment method of PPP project, introduce the risk assessment to the capital management system of professional bank, reduce the risk of the bank losses. The main contents of this paper are as follows:First, we put the Copula function describing the relationship between variables into the risk assessment of PPP project, using the Copula function to describe the relationship between cash inflows and cash outflows. By Monte Carlo simulation technique to overcome the disadvantage of lack of project data, based on the feasibility study of the project and similar projects in the relevant economic data, using MATLAB and other mathematical tools calculate the project of value at risk(VAR), to lay the foundation for the following investment structure.Then, according to the characteristics of PPP project financing recourse, using CAPM model to calculate the rate of return on investment projects, according to the CAPM model that two different losses and return on investment rate, establish PPP project risk compensation model, distribute the income between company and bank loan base on the proportion of risk compensation, and calculate the constraint condition of the income distribution, draw the PPP project feasible and necessary conditions;Finally, establish the game model between the project company and the bank loan of PPP project, calculation of bank loans and the project company in the operation of the project in their net income, Based on the analysis of the financing conflict, constructs the game model of the financing structure, get the optimal combination of investment structure, namely the optimal loan amount and the amount of equity.The results show that the expected return of the project company must be greater than the required return and the expected return of bank loans can not be greater than the required return also cannot be less than ; The is the optimal bank loan amount, The is the amount of equity of the item company.As long as this can make the loan risk in a reasonable distribution between the two sides, it can not only make the loan bank to get the benefits, but also not to bear too much risk, so as to coordinate the relationship between the two, promote cooperation. The main results of this paper include the following aspects:(1) putting the Copula function describing the relationship between variables into the risk assessment of PPP project, provides a new train of thought to study the risk factors;(2) using Monte Carlo method simulate the changes in risk factors, overcome the defect of insufficient data;(3) combining the simulation results of risk factors and financial risk evaluation model, for evaluating the risk of PPP project provides new methods;(4) established the bank loans and the project company game model, to provide support for the strategy of bank lending.