Interest Rate Adjustment Under The Influence Factors Of Residents' Savings Behavior Research In China

Since China's reform and opening up, China's household savings steady growth, maintained a high growth rate for a time. China's 1978 residents savings is only 21 billion yuan, in 2014, has grown to 48.5261 trillion yuan, so that more than one thousand times the growth rate is amazing. Saving more than 50% of residents in our country at present, the data is far more than the world average level, our country become the world's highest savings rate. The increase in household saving in China's economic development to provide strong financial backing for at the same time, the high savings rate also reflects China's weak domestic demand, economic growth over-reliance on investment and exports, this is not conducive to the long-term stable development of economy.Interest rates as the price of capital, its adjustment changes directly affect the economic interests of the residents' savings. In recent years, the adjustment of the interest rate in China are increasingly frequent, interest rates is also more flexible, constantly promote market-oriented interest rate reform. From 1996 to 2002, during the eight consecutive interest rate cut, the one-year deposit interest rate from 7.47% to 1.98%, in adjusting is rare in the history; From 2006 to 2010, during the one-year deposit interest rate adjustment as many as 13 times; From 2014 to 2015, to promote the marketization of interest rate, the central bank to adjust interest rates four times in a row, finally lift the ceiling on deposit rates. The whole, the interest rates rise or decline phase, of the total savings growth remains strong. So, the adjustment of the interest rate whether to guide the residents' savings behavior change? Residents' savings behavior is influenced by what factors? With the deepening of economic reform, the development of the stock market and real estate market shunt the savings? These problems is China's household savings need to be solved problems of healthy growth, the study of monetary policy effectiveness, promote the reform of marketization of interest rate also has practical significance.For further study of the influence factors of Chinese residents' savings behavior under interest rate adjustment, combing related theoretical basis, this paper analyses the current situation and influencing factors of residents savings, focuses on the historical stage of interest rate adjustment the change of the residents' savings behavior, and select data from 1993 to 2014, the VAR model is established for empirical research. The empirical results show that: China's household savings growth and interest rates is the relationship between positive, changes in interest rates in about 2 years to produce stimulation to promote savings, but the role is to promote short-term, in the long term. The main factors driving the growth of China's household savings is the improvement of residents' disposable income. The rate of inflation and reverse change to the residents' savings. In recent years the development of the stock market and real estate market also affect residents' savings decisions. Stock price index and household savings reverse changes, when bullish on the stock market, attracted a lot of money into the stock market, reduce the savings. The development of the real estate market a positive impact on household savings in the short term, but in the long term appears as a negative change. Finally, this article from the deepening market-oriented interest rate reform, widen the channel of the residential investment, improve the housing security system, improve the Angle put forward relevant policy Suggestions such as income, to effectively guide the decisions of household savings, promote efficient conversion of savings into investment or consumption, improve the effectiveness of interest rate policy to provide the reference.