Analysis On The Causes And Countermeasures Of Excess Coal Production Capacity In China

Since 2012, the "golden decade" of China's coal industry came to the end, serious oversupply of coal took place, coal prices fell sharply, the loss of coal enterprises continued to expand. The loss of coal enterprises expanded to 90 percent until 2015, and the coal industry faced a serious crisis. After more than ten years of rapid development, the economic growth space relying on investment driven peaked, there is a serious phenomenon of excess capacity among iron and steel, cement and other traditional industries. As a basic energy industry, the decline in demand for the downstream industry caused a huge impact on the coal industry, the excess capacity of coal is the main reason for the oversupply of the coal market. This article takes overcapacity in the Chinese coal industry as a starting point research, makes judge of excess coal production capacity based on the description of the occurrence condition of coal resource, coal industry running situation, the coal market status and history, takes subdivision in accordance with the capacity and output and makes analysis of the mechanism of excess coal production capacity from the angle of "tide phenomenon", investment overheating, the government a rent, regional monopoly, the impact of imported coal. This article makes the empirical analysis of the influencing factors using co-integration test and Granger causality test and put forward countermeasures and suggestions of the regulation of coal production capacity. The main contribution of this paper is:In the part of present analysis, the main conclusion is: firstly, China is rich in coal resources and the regional distribution is unbalanced; secondly, there is a serious dislocation of space between the coal occurrence and distribution and demands of economic development in China; thirdly, the construction of Chinese coal transport channel is not perfect, the transportation efficiency is low; fourthly, Chinese coal industry economic development predicament generally, most of enterprises are making loss; fifthly, the concentration and the level of technology of China coal industry are low; sixthly, there is a significant dislocation between the high-speed growth of coal market supply and the slowed growth of demand; seventhly, the impact of export coal on the domestic coal market is serious; Eighthly, Chinese coal investment growth slowed but remained high; Ninthly, the price of China the coal market and the international coal market prices remained synchronous changes.In the part of influence factors analysis, this paper uses statistical calculation to determine China coal production capacity, and the influence factors of excess capacity were analyzed by using the method of hierarchical analysis, the main conclusion is: firstly, China coal industry has appeared overcapacity since 2012, and continues to increase; secondly, the main influence factors of coal production capacity construction are the “wave phenomenon'',the enterprise behavior of hunting profit,the impulse of development of the government, and the government rent creating behavior and corporate rent-seeking behavior is the root cause of excess capacity investment; thirdly, the main obstruction of coal production capacity out is the high exit barriers and the economic and social responsibility which coal enterprises to bear; fourthly, the main influence factors of coal production is the decrease of coal prices caused by the impact of imported coal, coal downstream demand weakness and complex market competition structure; Fifthly, coal production also constrained by coal mutual and local government fiscal targets.In the part of empirical test,this paper makes the empirical test of factors of coal production capacity with the Pearson correlation test, ADF unit root test, E-G two steps co-integration test, Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test. The main conclusion is: firstly, there are significant correlations among the factors such as the number of coal enterprises, the proportion of investment, local coal sales, profits of coal enterprises in coal consumption, coal import and export balance,the industrial added value and the coal industry total investment and the yield of China raw coal, which has proved the existence of ‘wave phenomenon' in the coal industry; secondly, coal enterprise profit has a promoting effect on the coal industry investment, reflecting the problems of investment overheating and the single structure of coal industry; thirdly, there is impact on domestic coal production caused by the imported coal,and industrial development promotes the development of the coal industry, which reflects imported coal has caused a strong impact on the development of the domestic coal industry. Industrial development is the main driving force for the development of the coal industry, and with the gradual decreasing of proportion in the economy of the traditional industries of high coal consumption, the development of the coal industry will be affected.Finally, this paper presents the production control countermeasures: firstly, scientific planning capacity and promoting overcapacity exit orderly are need; secondly, we should improve industrial concentration through the establishment of large coal bases and merger and reorganization of coal enterprises; thirdly, we should improve coal transportation network through coal channel construction and large storage and distribution center construction, to raise the level of the coal market; fourthly, we should promote the integration of coal industry and diversified development, and improve the comprehensive competitiveness of coal enterprises.The innovation of this paper is: firstly, this paper analyzes and interprets the "tide phenomenon" in coal industry; secondly, this paper explains causes of overheated investment in coal with rent-seeking behavior, a rent behavior, externality theory; thirdly, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the theory of the coal industry industrial barriers, regional barriers, government intervention, and explains the problems of the out obstacles of coal production capacity and coal marketization; fourthly, this makes analysis of the effects on coal production and price, which makes by coal market competition structure, economic development and coal economy relations, the international coal market impact; fifthly, the influence of coal production capacity and yield factors are empirically tested.