Reason Analysis Of International Oil Price Fluctuation And Countermeasures

Since the second half of 2014,the international oil price appears abnormal fluctuations in the extent and speed of the decline than normal time.The reason analysis of international oil price fluctuation has always been one of the important problems of academic research for a long time.The relationship between supply and demand is regarded as one of the most basic factors to affect oil price.With the impact of some phenomenon in the polycentralization of international economy and economic crisis,more and more factors are in the restriction and influence of international oil price.For example,crude oil futures market,science and technology innovation and shale oil revolution,etc.This article analyzes five major factors affecting international oil price fluctuation through theory which has found that supply and demand is still the most basic cause of the oil price fluctuation.At the same time,changes of dollar index,different reactions of Investors in crude oil futures market,geopolitical game,as well as the major effect of the energy revolution are influencing the current oil price from the different aspects of the external.According to official statistics from1990 to 2014,we find that the world's GDP,the dollar index,the OECD consumption,OPEC production,the non-commercial net long and geopolitical relationship have a significant relationship with international crude oil price fluctuation.Moreover,it can well explain the phenomenon of oil fluctuation.After the VAR analysis,we find that the OPEC production and OECD consumption are the most profound impact of the international oil price.And the oil price is also affected by its lag effect.To provide policy advice more accurately in order to take measure for oil fluctuation,we use Holter-winter season model to predict the short price of WTI.At the end,we find that oil price will have a trend of decline in the second half of 2014 then will rise slightly.Through the above analysis,we should focus the key point at adjustment of our supply and demand market,the strategic oil reserve system,domestic oil pricing mechanism and construction of oil futures market.At same time,we need strengthen the international communication andcooperation.Only in this way,can we improve the Inefficient use of energy and advocate green energy saving.