Study On China’s Oil Security Pre-warning And Countermeasure Under Shale Gas Revolution

Oil is important strategic resource for national development. With rapid social and economic development, China’s energy demand and consumption has rose promptly, especially in oil and gas. Gap between energy supply and demand is widening, and China’s dependence on foreign oil is climbing, which will influence the international oil market, and in turn China’s oil security will grow harsher. China must attach great importance to improving the security of oil for the benefit of healthy and stable social and economic development.Shale gas revolution has bring great influence on the global energy, geopolitical and economic areas. Hence China’s oil security is facing new situation under shale gas revolution. Establishing and perfecting China’s oil security pre-warning system under such background is very important. This paper studies the development and the influence of shale gas revolution and analyses the situation facing China’s oil security. Based on the background of the shale gas revolution, using the principal component analysis method to determine factors’ weight, using multivariate linear weighted preliminary to estimate oil security, China’s oil security prewarning system was build. And then through multivariate polynomial regression for further measurement. Two kinds of results were combined to analyze, evaluate and forecast the future China’s oil security situation. Finally China’s oil security countermeasures are proposed under the background of the shale gas revolution. This paper is expected to play a guiding role in setting up oil security warning system and protecting China’s oil security.