Studies On Project Financial Evaluation Indexes Based On Uncertain Cash Flows

Most investors in project financial evaluation relied on intuition and experience to a large extent to make judgements on investment projects evaluation. Thus, the results could not provide a powerful and persuasive decision-making reference. With the rapid development of interdisciplinary "economic mathematics", project economic evaluation methods are becoming more and more diversified, and the assessment system is becoming more and more mature. Project financial evaluation epitomizes one project's economic effect from the perspective of quantitative, which is the core and significant part of the project feasibility study and assessment. It offers a valuable decision-making basis with great importance to the stakeholders. Under the increasingly complex and changeable project environment, the serial study towards the uncertainty of financial evaluation indexes and methods is launched.The main work is as follows:Firstly, we review the development history of project financial evaluation, and give a brief introduction of project evaluation indexes and methods which are widely recognized at present. To figure out the measurement problem of cash flows which is the key parameter of project financial evaluation indexes when calculating, we read and summarize the works home and abroad in cash flow structure and uncertain cash flow measurement. Three ways of measuring uncertainty mentioned above lay the foundation of further research.And then, according to the works of project financial evaluation and uncertain cash flows and other related fields of foreign and local scholars, three methods usually used to describe uncertainty, that is, probability, fuzzy numbers and interval numbers, are introduced to four kinds of project financial evaluation indexes such as net present value and so on. We also offer some ranking criteria related to financial evaluation indexes of multiple projects.Finally, formulas are formed based on three kinds of uncertainty measurement and some numerical examples based on engineering projects and the case based on Beijing Subway Line 4 are given to show the feasibility and applicability.This study may enrich project financial evaluation indexes system by improving the measurement of risk and uncertainty, and provide new methods for uncertain financial assessments. We also want to give the investors a new financial evaluation perspective.