Analysis On The Secondary And Derivative Events Caused By Flight Delay At The Airport And Its Chain Effect

In recent years, with the significant increase in the China's flight capacity, the on-schedule rate of flight, however, is a declining trend. The problem of flight delays is becoming more and more prominent.The safety of the airport is endangered by flight delays.When flight delays occur, the airport can not be informed of emergency situation and its emergency management is just in the passive defense. This paper takes flight delays as the primary event, analyzes the airport security influence made by secondary and derivative events under the condition of flight delays, constructs the event chain and sets up event chain effect analysis model to research the quantitative analysis and evaluation methods of airport emergency.Firstly, with the introduction of safety assessment parameters and guide words, the secondary and derivative events are acquired. The chain of the secondary and derivative events was constructed by direct relationship and secondary and derivative relationship matrix.Secondly, the chain effect needs to be analyzed after the construction of the event chain. The network structure characteristics of the event chain are analyzed, and vulnerabilities of nodes and edges of the event chain are analyzed, based on the analysis of the network structure characteristics of the chain.Thirdly, according to the characteristics of the secondary and derivative events caused by flight delay, the system dynamic model is proposed to research the chain effect. The mathematical expressions of damage rate and the damage degree of nodes were built to research the frequency and consequences of the emergency. Finally, simulation research and example analysis are used to verify the mathematical expressions based on system dynamic model.Emergencies events caused by flight delays are influenced by other events and its interior. The event chain system based on emergencies events has many characteristics, such as timeliness,complicacy,openness and feedback regulation. The chain effect analyzed from perspectives of network structure characteristics and system dynamics model can comprehensively consider events spread direction, development trend and its loss.Through the above research,it can be used by airport emergency management department to determine the sequence of events and provide a scientific and reasonable emergency decision-making.