The Analysis Of The Influence Of The Margin Trading Upon The Motion Of Our Country's Stock Market

Along with the securities margin trading business release in march 31,2010, our country's stock market took place huge variety, which break the single side trade structure and form the "bilateral bargin mode". Namely, even if the stock market in the process of falling, the investors can also pass short selling bargin accrual, what's more,as the margin trading has a trait of lever and stock market investment to guide, it raised the stock market's liquidity and boosted the vitality of the investor of stock market to participate in a margin short selling to a great degree, which infused into new vitality for the development of stock market. But whether it will lower the stock market motion or how much will it lower motion rage of stock market, domestic and international scholar still hold different views. Some scholars think that the margin trading will lower the motion of stock market and have a function of stabilize the market. But other scholars still hold the idea that the margin trading of releasing had a function of "help to rise and kill to fall", and turned worse the motion of stock market further. Then this text will lead the points through the introduction of the current situation of China's development and existence issues about margin trading, then separately introduce the concept of margin trading, trade of characteristics, the difference between the margin trading and other securities transactions.At the same time, this text also analysis the margin trading factors and mechanism affecting stock market volatility. Finally we treat margin purchase and short sale balance as independent variables and treat the volatility of the stock market as dependent variables, use empirical research analysising the impact on the stock market volatility before and after the introduction of margin trading and the margin effect on the volatility of the stock market after the launch through using GARCH(1,1) model and selecting the day datas about CSI 300 Index trading from April 11,2005 to December 31,2015. At last, we put forward some suggestions according to the substantial evidence analytical, for example, paying attention to and developing the concept of the stock market short of investors, enlarging the scale of margin trading, and strengthening the risk prevention measures, improving the market supervision system and so on. Ultimately, the conclusion of this paper includes the following two points:(1)The influence of the margin purchase and short sale is absolutely different, margin purchase reduces the volatility of the stock market, whereas, short sale is not the same, it has increased the volatility of the stock market.(2)Margin trading reduces the volatility of the stock market, but it just has a weak influence.