A Research On The Impact Of Monetary Policy On Commercial Bank Risk-Taking

The financial crisis hit the global economy, but also stimulate people to reflect on the crisis. Before the crisis, low interest rates, credit expansion and lack of supervision are the root causes of the accumulation of credit risk of financial institutions in developed countries. With the understanding of financial crisis, more and more scholars are turning to the role of financial intermediation in the economy and monetary policy, especially banks. The bank is an important role to determine the effectiveness of policy implementation. And more and more scholars find that the bank also takes on the risks brought by the monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationship between bank risk-taking and all kinds of policies.Lately, with the economy pressure, the loose monetary policy come to a census. In 2005, People's Bank of China made a series of monetary policies, and we have to admit these measures supported China's "steady growth" but we also can not ignore the monetary policy risks during this period.In recent years, Chinese scholars have emerged many articles on monetary policy and bank risk relationship Based on these papers, we found many valuable research, but also recognized the shortcomings of existing studies. Our research on monetary policy and the commercial bank exposures many problem in several aspects, firstly our research started late. Secondly, the existing literature may not apply to some of the conclusions of the current situation, the existing literature paper concluded, "the impact of monetary policy on commercial bank exposures have asymmetry" have been tested, test results are not significant, indicating that this asymmetry may not quite applicable to the actual economic situation of our country today. Finally, the existing literature rarely give the relationship of the risk-taking and economic cycle.The article is organized as follows, firstly, the concept of bank risk-taking in the paper is defined. And then introduced two methods for measuring bank exposures:single measurement methods and compositions risk indicators measure method, and compare their differences. We take 16 commercial banks as samples, the time period is from third quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2015, and macroeconomic data, then established the panel data model. By analyzing the results we got:(1) monetary policy risks of commercial banks are generated by income valuation effects, profit effect, competition effect and insurance effect on the bank's risk appetite. (2)Because of bank assets, profit and capital, different banks have different risk-taking ability. The more capital the bank has, the more power to resist to risk; generally, the non-interest income strengthen the monetary policy of risk,, the higher the proportion of non-interest income in total income of commercial banks, the more sensitive to the effects of the monetary policy response generated. However, according to further analysis of the portfolio risk measurement models, the paper needs to be considered that the sheet business may not strengthen risk for each currency policy, but only strengthen some or several risk conduction, and therefore they should be treated differently in different nature risks of. (3) at the time by a single measure of bank risk, monetary policy on the part of commercial banks to take risks in different economic cycles showed asymmetry, but in the perspective of portfolio risk measure analysis, this asymmetry is not obvious, the impact of economic cycles on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy risks are localized, locally enhanced the impact of monetary policy on bank risk and the risk of bankruptcy assets assumed. (4) The empirical results show that existing research conclusion "to assume the direction of monetary policy adjustments on commercial bank risk asymmetry" performance is not obvious. This paper argues that with China's monetary policy adjustment, the conclusion may not apply to today's status in China. Finally the writer give the recommendations for the monetary policy in the future.This article may get some innovation, (1)the model was added to the proxy variable sheet business-non-interest income. Attempts to explain the high proportion of non-interest income, will exacerbate the impact of monetary policy on the risks of commercial banks bear. Meanwhile, the paper of the existing literature concluded that "the impact of monetary policy on commercial bank exposures have asymmetry" were tested, the test results are not significant. Finally, this paper will attempt to reflect the commercial bank risk indicators are combined in an appropriate way, to form a composite measure of risk indicators, comprehensively reflect the degree of risk of commercial banks.Although this article made some valuable conclusions, but there are still many deficiencies. First with Z value, net lending rate, the proportion of risk-weighted assets, as well as combination of methods measure, while the bank risk evaluation, largely overcome the one-sidedness of a single evaluation index, but still not comprehensive enough. Secondly, the proportion of non-interest income and the size can not be fully representative of the level of off-balance sheet business. Finally, the micro-individual data bank used herein from the 16 listed banks' earnings, limit the number of individuals may result in cross-section the conclusions are not representative.