Research Of Urumqi Rail Transit Line 2 Life-Cycle Cost Risk

Urumqi Rail Transit Line 2 can relieve traffic congestion in the Old Town and promote the overall development of Urumqi, which will bring opportunities for Urumqi to become international metropolis. It has great social benefits far outweigh the economic benefits. Because of the characteristics of public service infrastructure, the Mass Transit Railway will need a huge amount of capital investment and get low return in a long payback period. That is why cost risk control is especially important. In order to control the whole cost of the project 2 timely and to ensure the smooth implementation of the project 2, this article studies on the cost risk of the project 2. Taking the impact from the cost risk of every stage to the follow-up stage into account, the cost risk can't be analyzed in isolation, or it will follow only partially risky factors, while ignoring some of greater cost risk factors for life-cycle cost impact. Therefore, this article apply life-cycle theory of risk management to study on the cost risk of the project 2. It analyses the whole cost risk within the life cycle and applies the fault tree of gray correlation to sort these cost risk. It propose the response plan to the cost risk in the end.Firstly, this article discusses the whole cost risk within the life cycle in the project 2. The project 2 can be divided into the decision-making phase, design phase, bidding phase, implementation phase, operation and maintenance stage. The cost risk of decision-making phase are the blind expansion of the scale of the project or to raise standards, ignoring social factors and the natural conditions and the lack of experience in similar projects. The cost risk of design phase are insufficient design, unreasonable design, weight technology as well as light economy, unreasonable demands of owners. The cost risk of bidding phase are inappropriate time to carry out the bidding, low quality of bidding documents, lack of scientific evaluation methods and contractual issues. The cost risk of implementation phase are visa management issues, owners can't provide construction conditions timely, the problems of construction scheme and force majeure risk. The cost risk of operation and maintenance stage are unreasonable operational strategy and technical update.Then, it applies the fault tree of gray correlation to sort these cost risk. The most important risk are the blind expansion of the scale of the project or to raise standards, unreasonable demands of owners and contractual issues. Secondly is unreasonable operational strategy. Thirdly are low quality of bidding documents and force majeure risk. Fourthly are the lack of experience in similar projects, weight technology as well as light economy and visa management issues. Fifthly are ignoring social factors and the natural conditions and owners can not provide construction conditions timely. Sixthly are unreasonable design and the problems of construction scheme. The descending order of importance is lack of scientific evaluation methods, technical update, insufficient design and inappropriate time to carry out the bidding.Finally, in order to achieve the control of the life-cycle cost risk, this article proposes control scheme from the five aspects of policy, management, technical, operation and professional quality.