Analysis Of Chinese Exports To Western Asia Five Countries Duration And Its Influence Factors

Traditional international trade theory implies that trade relationship will continue to develop once established.But in fact,trade relationships are not stable when they first started.Because classic trade theory ignores the role of trade duration time,so today more and more scholars at home and aboard begin to study the characteristics and regularity of trade duration.Based on the “the Belt and Road” historical background,we analyzed the trade characters and research status of the related country and finally choose five western Asia countries as our research objects(these countries are The united Arab emirates,Saudi Arabia,Iran,Turkey and Israel).This paper adopted products data which contain the export from China to five western Asia countries of HS6 format from 2002 to 2014 from CEPII-BACI database.Using non-parameter K-M survival analysis and discrete –time Cloglog model,we study the export survival time duration and its influence factors between China and five western Asia countries.The survival analysis suggest that the export time duration from China to five western Asia countries are generally short;export trade relation of China's exports to each Western country exists multiple trading period,which means exists frequent entry and exit;The initial trade value of China's exports to Western five countries has a enormous influence on its trade duration;At the initial stage of the trade relationship,export duration is relatively short.At the same time,the export time duration from China to the whole five western Asia countries is also very short,the average number of export duration is 3.6936 years,with the median is 2 years;the probability of survival rate is greater than or equal to 1 year was 58.59%,and the probability of survival rate is greater than or equal to 10 year was just 8.37%;the probability of export product can survive over 1 year but less than 2 years was 41.41%,and probability of export product can survive over 10 years but less than 11 years was 31.45%.The result of the estimation of total survival function suggests that the trade have negative time-dependence.The risk sharply increases when the trade relation firstly established and then gradually stable.The result of the estimation of survival function based on initial trade value suggests that the larger the initial value,the higher the survival ratio.The result of the estimation of survival function based on the income suggests that the larger the income,the longer the export time duration.The result of the estimation of survival function based on the product suggests that the survival function of labor intensive products is the highest,the capital intensive products take the second place,and the survival function of resource intensive products is the lowest.It concludes that compared to establish new relationship,it is more important to maintain the existing relationship and increase the initial value of the trade relation.The discrete-time cloglog model suggests that the larger the object country's GDP,the higher object country's income,the higher object country's population,the higher the bilateral trade value,the larger the initial value,the longer the export time duration.The longer the distance,the object country is a WTO member and the bigger the country risk,the shorter the export time duration.From the perspective of raising Chinese's exports to Asia five countries trade,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: targeted to choose trade partners;improve the initial value of the trade with export destination country,the more the better;increase the export of labor intensive products;our country should accelerate the construction of “the Belt and Road” and strengthen the construction of sea and land transport facilities with the five western Asia countries;warn for the country risk of the export destination country;establish suffering consciousness,take various derivative financial instruments to avoid risk.