Analysis Of China’s Fruit Export Survival And Impact Of Non-tariff Measures

Under the background of the continuous increase of domestic fruit output and the increasing scale of import market,China’s fruit industry is facing the problem of insufficient export volume and unstable growth.As the domestic fruit market is gradually oversupplied,ensuring the stable growth of exports is an important way to increase the income of fruit farmers and promote the healthy development of China’s fruit industry.According to recent studies in the field of international trade,strengthening the continuity of existing trade relationships plays an important role in maintaining long-term stable export growth.However,due to the uncertainty of destination demand and cost,most trade relationships are difficult to maintain for a period of time,and there are frequent entry and exit phenomena.At the same time,with the development of trade liberalization,traditional tariff barriers to trade restrictions gradually weakened,while both flexible and hidden non-tariff measures have become an important factor affecting international trade.Compared with general agricultural products,fruit products inevitably have chemical residues and physical pollutants in production and transportation,which easily become the focus of non-tariff measures,especially technical measures.Unlike tariff barriers,which can appear in the form of specific values,international non-tariff measures usually appear in the form of texts in relevant legislative documents,and there are many types,and the impact mechanism on trade is also relatively complex.Although measures with typical trade protectionist tendencies such as quantity control measures and price control measures will have a negative impact on fruit exports,the implementation of technologies normative measures such as SPS measures and TBT measures that focus on food safety and human health issues may also boost fruit exports from the demand side by reducing consumer information asymmetry when product quality meets relevant standards.Therefore,the impact of non-tariff measures on China’s fruit export is complex,which depends on the trade environment faced by China’s fruit export and its own product quality.The new-new trade theory based on incomplete information holds that the survival performance(continuity or stability)of a trade relationship depends on the relative changes of fixed costs and benefits in each period.Researches in the field of international trade generally believe that non-tariff measures affect trade by acting on fixed trade costs rather than tariff measures affecting trade by acting on variable trade costs.Then,theoretically speaking,the typical external shock of non-tariff measures will inevitably have a certain impact on the survival of China’s fruit exports by affecting the fixed cost of each period.Therefore,identifying the impact of non-tariff measures on the survival of Chinese fruit exports and the differences in the impact of different types of measures under different circumstances has important theoretical and practical significance for China to better cope with future challenges in the global fruit market and improve export stability.Combining the above theoretical basis,data and literature experience,in order to better understand the survival performance of China’s fruit exports since China’s accession to the WTO,identify the possible impact of heterogeneous non-tariff measures on the export survival,and further provide theory and experience for promoting the steady growth of China’s fruit exports,this paper attempts to conduct two parts of empirical research on the basis of sorting out and summarizing the typical characteristics of China’s fruit production,export trade and non-tariff measures in the international fruit market,specifically:First part: Survival analysis of China’s fruit export.In order to understand the stability of China’s fruit export trade,it is necessary to carry out a survival analysis on the characteristics of China’s fruit exports after China’s entry into the WTO.This part mainly includes the following contents: First,the dual margin decomposition of the change of China’s fruit export volume is carried out,and the descriptive analysis of its change trend and the anti-reality analysis considering all the stable trade relations are also carried out;Second,we use a scientific and rigorous survival analysis method to study the survival characteristics of China’s fruit exports,and at the same time conduct a comparative analysis with Italy,Chile,Spain and other major fruit exporting countries in the world,and conduct classification discussions based on the differences in comparative advantages or different regional markets;Third,group estimation of survival function(hazard function)is carried out based on whether non-tariff measures are encountered,so as to obtain preliminary expectations from non-parametric estimation of the impact of non-tariff measures on trade survival,and classification discussions under different circumstances is also conducted.The main research conclusions of this part are as follows: From 2002 to 2019,the intensive margin of China’s fruit exports increased with fluctuations,while the extensive margin barely changed.By calculating the contribution rate,the growth of China’s fruit export volume is extremely dependent on the intensive margin,and under all unrealistic conditions of stable trade relationships,the contribution rate of the extensive margin to export growth has risen sharply;There are 1316 trade relationships and 2239 trade spell in China’s fruit exports,of which 42.40% of the trade relationships have 2 or more trade spells,and the average trade spell length is 5.116 years,the median is 2 years,and 43.90% of them have the length of the trade spell is only 1 year,67.04% of the trade spell are no more than3 years in length,and only 7.95% of the trade spell are longer than 18 years;Compared with the world’s major fruit exporters,China’s fruit export has no advantage in terms of trade spell distribution,especially in terms of maintaining long-term trade relationships with other major exporters;The hazard rate of China’s fruit exports has obvious negative time dependence,and there is a phenomenon of “high infant-mortality”;Compared with other major exporting countries,the hazard rate of China’s fruit exports is generally high;Based on the differences in comparative advantages,the trade spell distribution characteristics and survival function of China’s comparatively advantageous fruit exports are better than those of comparatively disadvantaged fruits,and for different regional markets,China’s fruit exports has the best survival performance in Asian market and the worst survival performance in African market;Group comparison showed that the survival function of the non-tariff measures group was significantly lower than that of the non-tariff measures group.Second part: Econometric analysis of the impact of non-tariff measures on export survival.After a preliminary expectation of the impact of non-tariff measures on the survival of China’s fruit exports,further analysis was conducted using an appropriate econometric model.This part mainly includes the following contents: First,we carry out the benchmark regression analysis,robustness test and endogenous discussion of the impact of non-tariff measures and related variables of survival analysis on trade survival;Second,we examine the “leading-death in infant” effect of non-tariff measures on trade survival;Third,the classification and discussion are conducted based on different survival stages,differences in comparative advantages,different regional markets and different products;Fourth,we compare the heterogeneous effects of different types of non-tariff measures on survival,and conduct classification discussions under different circumstances;Fifth,we explore the heterogeneous effects of different sub-categories on survival under the same category.The main conclusions of this part are as follows: Encountering non-tariff measures has a restrictive effect on the survival of Chinese fruit exports,and there is a “leading-death in infant” effect;With the increase of export duration,the export hazard rate gradually decreases,and the negative impact of trade spell ordinal on the hazard rate only exists in the initial series;SPS measures,customs formalities,quantity control measures and price control measures all have a general corresponding restrictive effect on China’s fruit export survival respectively,and the proposal of SPS measures will have a restrictive effect on export survival only when relevant technical standards and corresponding conformity assessment procedures are proposed at the same time;Whether in the “birth-growth period”or “maintenance period”,the survival of China’s fruit exports is restricted by non-tariff measures,but SPS measures and customs formalities mainly restrict the survival of exports in the “birth-growth period”,while TBT measures have a promotion effect on export survival during the “maintenance period”;Non-tariff measures have restricted the export survival of comparatively advantageous and comparatively disadvantaged fruits,but TBT measures have promoted the export survival of comparatively advantageous fruits.Non-tariff measures mainly restrict the survival of China’s fruit exports in the Asian and European markets,and different types of non-tariff measures have different effects on the survival of fruit exports in different regional markets;Non-tariff measures have seriously hindered the export survival of China’s “080810”(fresh apples),“080820”(fresh pears and quinces)and “081110”(frozen strawberries)fruit products.Based on the conclusions,to promote the long-term sustainable development of China’s fruit exports,this paper puts forward targeted suggestions from four aspects: The governments should(1)establish a monitoring and warning mechanism for non-tariff measures to proactively respond to non-tariff measures;(2)formulate differentiated export policies according to the characteristics of export products and regions;(3)improve fruit safety regulations and standards system,and actively participate in the establishment of standards;(4)promote enterprises to improve production and the quality of fruit products.The possible contributions of this study are in the following three aspects:First,in terms of research methods,the application of survival analysis in the field of trade research is further improved.For example,on the basis of the dual margin analysis,we apply the anti-reality analysis method to initially understand the survival conditions of China’s fruit export;The concepts of “duration”,“survive time” and “length” of the trade spell are further distinguished,so as to avoid the ambiguity of understanding caused by the unclear sorting out of related concepts in previous studies;The introduction of survival analysis variables such as “duration” and “ordinal number of trade spell” into the econometric model is beneficial to further improve the current econometric research on trade survival in China.In short,on the basis of predecessors,the further induction and improvement of survival analysis in this paper hope to serve a reference role in the future study of trade survival.Second,this study promotes the development of research on China’s fruit trade,focusing on the impact of non-tariff measures on the export survival of China’s fruit.Previous studies on China’s fruit export mostly focused on international competitiveness and trade potential based on traditional trade theories,but this descriptive analysis of China’s fruit export characteristics by using relatively simple statistical indicators has limitations for a comprehensive grasp of China’s fruit export characteristics.Based on the new-new trade theory,this paper first conducts a dual margin decomposition of China’s fruit export to identify the marginal structure of China’s fruit export growth after China’s entry into the WTO.On this basis,a detailed survival analysis method was used to further explore the survival status of China’s fruit exports.At the same time,we also comprehensively analyze the impact of non-tariff measures,a typical external shock,on the survival of China’s fruit export.In short,this research has a certain role in promoting the research and development of China’s fruit export trade.Third,the study considers the heterogeneous effects of different categories of non-tariff measures.Due to the limited data acquisition of non-tariff measures,most of the previous studies on the impact of non-tariff measures on trade only focus on the impact of a specific category of non-tariff measures.In fact,in the international market,the implementation of non-tariff measures is more of a comprehensive implementation model,and ignoring the impact of other types of measures may lead to biased analysis results.Based on the records of non-tariff measures in the UNCTAD Trains database,this paper analyzes the differences in the impact of different types of non-tariff measures on the survival of Chinese fruit exports under different circumstances.This is helpful for a understanding of the differentiation mechanism of different types of non-tariff measures.