Research On Prediction Model Of Road Asphalt Pavement Performance

Social and economic development shows that the measure of a national modernization level which is a important symbol of the development of highway traffic conditions in the country.And the important factors that affect highway service level is the pavement performance whether can satisfy the requirement of transportation development.Highway pavement performance is a dynamic process of constant change,and how to take out the scientific and reasonable prediction is the important basis for reasonable maintenance plan.The pavement structure is a complex system,the factors that affecting the performance of the pavement and their relationship is complex,which relates to engineering design,construction and aspects of use,and most of the factors have uncertainty.Therefore,we must start systematic and deep analysis on factors that affecting the performance of pavement,put out comprehensive assessment on performance of the pavement which based on considerations of uncertainty.It is desirable to use data that based on field survey,which can exclude the existing Subjective judgment,and road damage is not difficult to quantify.Because of various natural factors and the role of the heavy traffic load,there will be produced early disease in asphalt pavement,such as aging asphalt,micro-cracks,loose grain,permeable,and insufficient skid resistance in pavement performance.If we do not taken appropriate measures,some diseases will develop functionally,accelerate damage of pavement structure,which will be affect road quality and shorten the life of the asphalt pavement.When early disease appear,the pavement still has sufficient structural bearing capacity,as in this condition,we can take out effective measures for road maintenance,that will be able to stop further damage occurs,extending the life of the road effectively.Based on the research of history technical data and pavement maintenance in Hunan,Firstly,we carry out survey of asphalt pavement service performance in road survey,according to research data,analyses the reasons that the types and causes ofpavement damage;Based on broad research of pavement performance evaluation model,by analyzing the factors of affecting the road performance and taking the strengths and weaknesses of the existing prediction model into account,the article proposed a new combination forecasting model based on the idea of combination forecasting,ie the method of Neural Networks combined with Markov model.And the study of the method of already had good results.This research results have important practical significance for improving the scientific management of highway maintenance departments,and also have theoretical value for highway construction management and sustainable development.