Research On Performance Evaluation And Prediction Of Asphalt Pavement Based On Markov

The "Fourteen Five-Year Plans and the Outline of Long-Term Goals for 203 5 pointed out the need to strengthen the construction of a transportation power.To build a strong transportation country must strengthen the construction of a modern infrastructure system.As an important part of the expressway,the maintenance of the expressway has become very important.Pavement performance evaluation and prediction provide a basis for road maintenance,so road evaluation and accurate prediction are required.This article relies on the G55 Erguang Expressway,First,collect the road data of the G55 Erguang Expressway(K118-K425 section),Then,based on the collected road condition information and the cause of the disease on the road,the disease cause analysis and the road performance evaluation are carried out.finally,the predicted road performance evaluation index is selected and the modified decay-Markov model is used to determine the road surface damage index(PCI)Value is predicted and compared with the predicted value of the gray model,and draws the following conclusions:(1)Through investigation and testing of the G55 Erguang Expressway(K118-K425 section),the main forms of road damage are horizontal cracks,longitudinal cracks,cracks and block cracks.The overall damage of the road surface is in the early and mid-stage of disease development,and only some sections of the road are seriously damaged,such as the section K415-K420.(2)The road damage condition index PCI has the greatest influence in the road technical condition index PQI,and its weight is 0.35.(3)Among the four decay equations:linear,quadratic,S-shaped and exponential decay equations,the exponential decay equation has the best prediction effect,and the exponential decay equation PCI=100×e^(-k×t^β)prediction The PCI value is more accurate,and the predicted maximum sum of squares of the difference is 55.753,and the decay equation PPI=PPI0{1-exp[-(α/t)β]}’s predicted maximum sum of squares Is 199.57.(4)The accuracy of the modified decay-Markov prediction model is higher than that of the decay equation,and higher than the prediction accuracy of the gray model.The maximum error of the gray model is 6.41,and the prediction errors of the Markov model are all within ±3,so Markov Forecast results are more reliable.The Markov model is more suitable for short-term and medium-term forecasting with less data.