Research On The Construction Of National Essential Drug Shortage Risk Assessment Index System

Objective:Based on the system theory and theory of supply and demand,starting from the basic drug supply chain process,a detailed analysis of risk factors affecting the shortage of essential drugs,screening shortage risk indicators of basic drugs,and determine the index weight,finally establishes the risk evaluation index system of the basic drug shortage,To provide a strong support for the quantitative assessment of the risk of the shortage of essential drugs,and lay a solid foundation for the establishment of an early warning system for the shortage of essential drugs.Methods:(1)the definition of risk factors and the primary screening methods of essential drugs,mainly using literature research and expert interviews.Based on the previous literature,the literature on the causes of the shortage of essential drugs at home and abroad was reviewed.At the same time,interviewing the basic drug production enterprises,management and distribution enterprises,medical institutions,health administrative departments in a total of 8 people,listening to the opinions of these specific staff,scientific and comprehensive analysis of the impact of the risk of all aspects of the shortage of essential drugs supply chain factors.On this basis,the literature on the relevant regulations for two times to find out the specific indicators of the impact of basic drugs shortage,and its reasonable classification.(2)Index evaluation method,mainly using Delphi method.In accordance with the willingness to participate in,risk areas the shortage of experienced,full coverage of the principle of selection of the pharmaceutical producing enterprises and pharmaceutical trading and distribution enterprises,medical institutions,health administrative departments and management personnel with senior professional titles,a total of 13 people as consultants.Through the form of e-mail questionnaires,two rounds of consultation were carried out in order to establish a risk assessment index system for the shortage of essential drugs.(3)weight determination method,mainly using the analytic hierarchy process,through the construction of AHP matrix,according to the expert scoring,calculatingthe specific weights of each evaluation index.Results:(1)the risk factors of essential drugs are related to the production,distribution,clinical use,government management,patient consumption and other supply chain.Among them,the production,clinical use and government management are the key factors that affect the risk of shortage of essential drugs.(2)After two rounds of consultation,the risk assessment index system of basic drug shortage,including production,management,distribution,use,the government’s 4 first level indicators,13 indicatorsofthe second level,45 indicators of the three level.At the same time,through the analysis of hierarchy process,the results show that the production(W production=0.261),use(Wuse=0.3423),the government(W government=0.3028)of the three dimensions of greater weight,is the main factor affecting the shortage of essential drugs.Conclusions:In order to improve the effectiveness of the basic drug shortage and ensure the stable operation of the basic drug supply market,we should gradually establish an early warning mechanism for the shortage of essential drugs,optimize the supply chain supervision of essential drugs,Encourage stakeholders to participate in the formation of regulatory efforts together.