Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On China's Industrial Transformation And Upgrading

Since the reform and opening up,China has experienced 30 years of rapid development.The improved medical technology has extended the life expectancy of the population greatly,and the implementation of family planning policy takes the birth rate under control that makes the new population proportion of the total population continues to decline.Therefore,compared with other countries,China's aging population presents a "late start,rapid development" characteristics.With the development of China's economy and society,the output value of the third industry is increasing year by year,and the contribution rate of the development of the third industry to the economy is also rising.However,with the slowdown in economic growth and the continuous increase in the elderly population,China is likely to face the plight of“old before rich”.Therefore,in order to enable our country to conform to the trend of population aging,to find new economic growth point,and to maintain stable and rapid economic growth,the study of hoe the aging population works on the transformation of China's industrial upgrading effect has very realistic meaning.This paper will according to research methods,different classification and so on to study the domestic and foreign literature scholars,and explain the aging population and industrial transformation and upgrading of the related concepts and theoretical analysis.Then choose four developed capitalist countries as a policy reference object,and describe the change of population policy and industrial policy with comments.On this basis,this paper makes a macro description on 1991-2015 change of population structure and industrial structure change trend in China,and draws the following conclusions:first,China's elderly population aged 65 and above population continues to expand the scale,the degree of population aging has truly increased;second,China's industrial output value accounted for third of GDP the proportion of production increasing,while the output of the second industry proportion decreased;third,all provinces and regions in the form of population aging and the three industries,showing a trend of change and development speed is obviously different.According to the present situation of the upgrading of China's population structure and industrial transformation,this paper sets index to optimize the industrial structure(Ta)and inter industry transformation index(Tb),and combined with the 2005-2014 panel data of 31 provinces in China,using the system of generalized matrix estimation(SYS GMM),to explain how the aging of the population affects our country industry the transformation and upgrading of quantitative analysis.The results show that the aging of the population to the industrial structure optimization and industrial transformation has a positive effect,significant and strong,in the introduction of control variables in the level of economic development,foreign trade and the level of public spending,the level of human capital and the child dependency ratio after the results are robust.At the same time,the economic development level and the level of foreign trade of the control variables also have a significant impact on the transformation and upgrading of the industry.Finally,according to the conclusions,the author puts forward some transformation to cope with an aging population and industry,including the development of old industry,to maintain stable and rapid economic growth,by improving the productivity level of foreign trade,encourage the school-age population growth and the implementation period of delay retirement.