Study Of The Influence Of Aging Population On The Changes Of Industrial Structure

Human beings are the basis of the industry development. On the demand end, people as the customers are the social demands for the ultimate impetus of the industry generation and development; on the supply end, people as the supply for the key factor of labor force also influence the industry development pattern, so the aging of population not only influences the population age structure, but also closely connects with the industry development. Our country is in the critical period in the transformation of the industrial structure and the accelerator period of the aging population, so it is urgent for us to solve the problem of realizing the industrial structure from the low level and unreasonable state to the high level and reasonable state under the background of the aging population. So to explore the influences of the aging population on the industrial structure changes has a great significance on realizing the upgrade and optimization of our industrial structure as well as the economic development mode. This essay bases on the previous studies with some breakthrough, analyzing the long and short influences of the aging population on the industrial structure changes through establishing the VAR model with the China1981-2012 data. The result of Pearson correlation test shows that the aging population has a strong positive relation with the optimization of industrial structure, while has weak correlation with the rationalization of industrial structure and the correlation is negative. According to the result of the co-integration test and IRF(impulse response function), the indicators of high-level industrial structure response weakly in the short term after the impact of the aging population, while produce a remarkable and durable changing trend at the same direction, that is the impact of the aging population in the long term will facilitate the industrial structure evolving to the high-level direction; and the indicators of the rationalization of industrial structure demonstrates a prominent positive response for a long period under the impact of the aging population, but the influence of the long term aging population on the rationalization of the industrial structure is unremarkable. The empirical result shows that aging population in the long term has a positive effect on the optimization of industrial structure, but has light effect on the rationalization, that is the demand and supply effect of aging population ultimately facilitate the industrial structure from low level to high level, while not promote the efficiency of each industry resource distribution, which shows that aging population do not just bring the negative effect but also positive effect. Finally, this essay gives several suggestions for facilitating the upgrade and optimization of industrial structure under the background of aging population based on the theoretical and empirical analysis.