Research On The Regulatory Effect That Beijing's Housing Restrictions Policy Has On Commercial Residential Market

Rigid demand of housing is increasing along with the accelerated urbanization process, while the existing investment channel of folk capital is too narrow, leading to active investment and speculative demand of commercial residential market. Since 2009, as the existing regulation policy can't change people's expectations of rising housing price, China's housing market has been trapped in a vicious circle. Thus, Housing Restriction Policy came into being in April, 2010. During the early stage of the policy, the growth of housing price was slowing down, and housing sales volume was also significantly reduced. However, the property market turned into recession since 2013, so local governments unfroze House Restrictions to refresh the flourishing market. So far, only the housing markets of four first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as Sanya is still under control. Therefore, an in-depth exploration into the controlling effect of restrictions on commercial residential market has important theoretical and practical significance.Qualitative and quantitative analysis are adopted in the thesis, and the commercial residential market of Beijing is taken for example. First of all, the necessity of Beijing's Housing Restriction Policy is expounded through two aspects which are housing price to income ratio(HPIR) and rationality of housing price. Then through descriptive analysis perceptual knowledge of the effect that the policy may have is obtained, which is the long-term trend curve of quantity and price of house in the housing market.Besides, Delay Grey Relational Analysis was adopted to analyze the changes of relevant variables which represent supply-demand relationship in commercial residential market before and after.The empirical results show that the Restriction Policy has a significant impact on the changes of supply and demand in the commercial residential market. O n the demand side of two variables are significantly negative inhibition effect, causing a big lag in time, while for suppliers is positive stimulus, leading to the sharp advance on time, greatly accelerating development progress of house. Finally, the GM(1, 1) model and trade data of Beijing's commercial residential market from 2004 to 2013 were used to simulate and predict the corresponding data in the next 5 years, so as to analysis the situation of Beijing's commercial residential market by then, and to discuss whether the policy continues or not. The results show that under the restrictions of Beijing,the Housing Price to Income Ratio and unsold part of commercial resident are increasing year by year. This suggests that the target of the policy has not been achieved,so it should be duly cancelled.Based on the results, four policy suggestions were put forward: regulation and control of real estate should be turned to a long-term mechanism to strengthen regulation and control result; To distinguish between the rigid demand, improved demand and investment(speculative) demand, then implement pertinent regulation policies; To make the supply and demand in commercial residential market into balance, can promote the prices turning to reasonable; Housing Restriction Policy is not a proper long-term regulation policy which aims to lower housing price, and the government should fully consider the relevant economic fundamentals which can affect housing price.