Research On Demand Forecast Of Housing Market In Mentougou District

Since the reform of the housing system in the last century,China has initially established a relatively complete urban housing construction distribution system and real estate market.However,in some cities,the total housing supply due to the unreasonable prediction of future housing demand in housing construction is greater than Problems such as unreasonable demand,unreasonable supply structure,and excessive growth in real estate investment still exist.The Beijing Urban Master Plan puts forward new requirements and draws a blueprint for Beijing's urban and rural construction development,which indicates the direction for housing development in the future.At the same time,Mentougou District is an ecological conservation area.There are many problems in housing development and it has strong representation.Therefore,it is urgent to analyze the factors affecting the housing demand in Mentougou District and make reasonable predictions.Based on this,this paper first summarizes and summarizes the housing demand theory and related theories through literature review.At the same time,it summarizes the grey system theory related to the influencing factors research and demand forecasting,and determines its applicability.After that,the location of Mentougou and the current housing situation were investigated,and the housing characteristics of investment development,supply and demand matching and sales price were analyzed.After that,based on the previous studies,this paper determines the influencing factors of housing demand in Mentougou District,and analyzes the influencing factors of housing demand in Mentougou District through the method of grey correlation analysis.Based on the analysis of influencing factors,this paper uses the weighted gray PGM(1,1)prediction model and the multiple regression prediction model to predict the housing demand of Mentougou District in 2017-2025,and the prediction results of the two methods are used as housing.After comparing,the result of forecasting housing demand level is finally determined.It also raised the challenges faced in the future development of housing demand in Mentougou District.Finally,this paper proposes a series of policy recommendations based on the analysis of influencing factors,prediction results and the challenges faced by the future development of the housing market in Mentougou District.The housing demand forecasting problem is a complex research topic.This paper takes the Mentougou District of Beijing as the research are,systematically analyzes the influencing factors of residential demand and predicts the local residential demand,so as to accurately grasp the basic situation of the residential market and scientifically and rationally formulate the land for the government departments.Supply planning provides support,and also help real estate companies to develop project planning,save money and guide residents to rational purchase of housing,and ultimately achieve the purpose of promoting the healthy development of the residential market in Mentougou District.At the same time,the weighted gray PGM(1,1)prediction model and the multiple regression prediction model are used to predict the supply and demand level of future housing development,improve the theory of housing development,and establish a theoretical model for housing market development prediction.10 Figures,19 tables,55 references.