| Nowadays,Urbanization is the most significant change in human society,as well as an insurmountable stage for a national or a regional when they are under the development.Meanwhile,it is an external phenomenon and internal essence for the progress of the human civilization and the society's booming development.Since the Reform and Opening up,it has made remarkable achievements on China's economic development.In the past 30 years,it has made proud achievements of industrialization accompanying by some achievements of urbanization in our country.Development of urbanization is crucial to the whole national economy,and it is also of great significance to the next economic growth room in China.So,an academic analysis including scientific,reasonable and efficient method for urbanization,and an in-depth analysis of urbanization driving factors,as well as the opinions compared with the actual situation of our country and combined closely with the policy requirements,is of great value and realistic meaning.According to the literature review,it has found that mostly methods are used in the past empirical study on the dynamic mechanism of urbanization are OLS and traditional quantile regression method.The first method OLS shows that it is too tough to do the research about the dynamic factors to the urbanization development,and the details are insufficient.The other one,traditional quantile regression method,is lack of handling of the fixed effects,which may generate endogenous problems easily.In view of the above two points,the article choose the method that Koenker(2004)provided,which named panel quantile regression model.Firstly,this article uses the kernel density method to describe the distribution characteristics of urbanization rate in the whole country,and it found that as time goes by,it steadily pushed forward the process of urbanization in our country,however,the“Bimodal”posture appeared gradually,meaning that the urbanization is polarized in China,part of the cities is gathered at a level of 40%-50%,and the other part is gathered at a level of 65%.At the same time,from the point of view of area,the lower levels gathered more concentrated and the development is not balanced;Secondly,after finishing the panel data quantile regression of the whole nation,it showed that the economic factors like(industrialization level,capital stock per worker and foreign economic situation),industrial structure and government power are the power factor of urbanization in our country,and it also showed that in the process of urbanization in China,the economic and industry factor provide a stable marginal contribution for urbanization in a low stage.What's more,it is also the main drivingforce of urbanization.But in attention,it appeared attenuation in a high score stage,it made an attenuation to marginal contribution of urbanization.Even more,it described that there exists a phenomenon that the government involved in or even dominated the process of the urbanization.Finally,the article made the points sample regression of the data from the various regions in the country,and made the detail analysis about the results,founding that the economic and industrial structure factors is the main dynamic factors of eastern and central urbanization in our country,but not the main dynamic factors of urbanization in western China,and then by further combining with the regional actual situation and the trend of different variables of the synchronous figure,according to the analysis,its result is that although it promoted rapid urbanization in our country,there exists the problem on the“quality”,even in the east,which is the most“health”district of urbanization,it also showed the phenomenon that government is involved excessively and then lead the urbanization.Even the urbanization is operated by government fiscal expansion,it is also unsustainable,and meanwhile,it would bury the debt risk.Once the economic downward cycle is coming in the future,the government balance sheet will be affected subversively,and at that time the risk will gradually exposed,and the already finished urbanization results will also be damaged,obviously not conducive to the long-term health of urbanization advancement.For our urbanization,it needed to come to the track that is promoted by economic development as well as the adjustment of industrial structure,urbanization is always people's urbanization,guiding people to urban mobility,ultimately depends on the development of economy and industry;the economy(industry,tertiary industry and foreign economy,etc.)in a city can create enough jobs,increase the attraction of people,thus is the power source of urbanization.According to the conclusion and the problems researches in this chapter,respectively,the paper proposes the following four suggestions:(1)Give play to the city's characteristic,advocate the personalized developments as to narrow the gap between eastern and western urbanization in our country.(2)Some of the institutional frameworks need to reform in our country,such as China's household registration system,the institutional framework hinder the free movement between urban and rural labor,leading to“excessive industrialization”and "low level of urbanization".(3)The government should gradually exit the involvement of the urbanization,play as a "night watchman"role,make the transformation government goal,standardize the government behavior,and improve the financial transparency,keep the "maintain" of the urbanization by a series of policy such like low interest rates,high investment.(4)The development of economy is the only way that can spontaneously to improve the capacity of the city,the industrialization and the development of the tertiary industry is the source of the foothold.The emphasis of urbanization should be industrialized,and developing the tertiary industry.In the current situation,it has a high degree of industrialization in our country,so it should be focus on the development of the tertiary industry and adjust the industrial structure. |
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