An Empirical Research On Determinants Of China's Urbanization-based On Panel Data

According to a research of Annec and Buckley,the improvement of urbanization is one of important prerequisites for a country or a region to become middle-income economy or high-income economy.Based on modernization theory,the urbanization not only feature as the movement and transfer of population,but also feature as its close relationship with important issues such as social transformation and economic development.Therefore,the development level of urbanization plays an very important role in socialist modernization of China.With the reform and open-up policy,the development of China's urbanization have made enormous achievements which reflect as the increased numbers of cities and towns,the expansions of urban city size and the continuous growth of urban population.Entering the 21 st century,the urbanization rate of China has risen from 36.20% to 56.10% in 2015 thanks to a rapid urbanization.Sufficient urbanization and urban-rural integration are strategy goals for next phase of China's urbanization development,therefore,the development pattern which pursuing expansion of urban city size unilaterally can not meet requirements of the new stage now.The former extensive growth pattern of urbanization needs an urgent reform and the developing quality of urbanization also needs significant improvements.For the sustainable urbanization development of China,accurate analysis and studies on urbanization mechanism is of great value.However,existing researches have paid less attention to the different effect of influencing factors on urbanization under various conditions and relevant analysis are still too rough.Quantile regression method enables us to analyze the marginal effect change of influencing factors on urbanization at particular quantile,which help us fully understand the urbanization process of China.In order to resolve high model dependency of traditional slope coefficients and variance-reduced indicators,this paper introduces dominance analysis method to compare the relative importance of influencing factors on urbanization in regression models more objectively.Based on previous theories and modes of developing urbanization,this paper analyzes the basic influencing factors on China's urbanization and establishes an empirical model.By employing the panel data from 2000 to 2014 in 30 provinces of China,this paper verifies and investigates the effect of regional diversity on China's urbanization and the relationship between China ‘s urbanization and urbanization rate.Finally,this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions and carries on research prospect.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.First,the differentiation coefficient of urbanization rate has been decreasing in the study period,which means that provincial development levels ofurbanization are going to be similar.This paper also found that the infra-regional difference of eastern China is greater than the western part and middle part of China.Second,the regional diversity and the difference of urbanization rate have significant effects on China's urbanization.Third,the results of quantile regression method shown that there are different features in each development stage of China's urbanization.At last,urban employment,the development of tertiary industries,foreign trade activities and the development of second industries are relatively important influencing factors on China's urbanization.