A Study On The Impacts Of Export Binary Margins On Economic Growth

With China's economy stepping into the "new normal" phase, our country's foreign trade has also entered the new normal with the features of keeping steady growth, adjusting structure and improving quality. Foundation for large quantity expansion of the demand will no longer exists, and the market competition has gradually shifted to quality competition and differentiated competition. How does foreign trade especially the diversification of foreign trade affects economic growth has become an urgent theoretical and practical questions. From this point of view, this paper calculates the export binary margins and uses the econometric model to explore the influence direction and function of export binary margins to the economic growth, and then put forward the corresponding policy suggestions, which is of great significance to promote the rapid development of China's foreign trade and economic sustainable growth for China.Based on the foreign classical theory and model, this paper builds a model of how export diversification affects economic growth by introducing the export diversification(Extensive margin) into the production function, to explain the micro mechanism of export diversification's effect on economic growth. Then, using BACI CEPII database according to HS96 code, 242 countries and a total of six kinds of 5068 digit class product code on behalf of the product from year 1998 to 2014, this paper calculates and analyzes the export binary margins from the national and industry level. Finally, an empirical study is studied on the inspection of export diversification impact on economic growth, along with the reasonable explanation.The decomposition results show that extensive margin's contribution to export growth in China is less than that of the developed countries like USA and German, and the contribution from the intensive margin is greater than the extension margin. The extension margin in China's resource type or labor-intensive industries such as the textile industry is relatively high, the extensive margin in capital and technology intensive industries such as machinery industry, chemical industry volatility rise. The intensive margins in all industries except from the oil, coal and other energy industries are rising. The empirical results show that the extensive margin helps to promote economic growth, and the promotion of the developed countries is even greater. Intensive margin of the developed countries have a negative impact on the economic growth, while intensive margin of the developing countries has a weak positive effect on the economic growth. From the industrial level, export binary margins has a positive role in promoting economic growth, the extensive margin is even greater. Among them, the extensive margin in the resource type and labor intensive industry has a significant effect on economic growth, but in the capital and technology intensive industry has a weak inhibitory effect on economic growth.