The Dual Marginal Constraints And Breakthrough Of China's Export Trade

With China's export booming, the trade theory of heterogeneous enterprise break through the bound, which was set by traditional trade theory and new trade theory. The trade theory of heterogeneous enterprise re-states the expansion mode. The reality is that there are a lot of "zero" in international trade flows, namely a country export to some countries only. When trade barriers fall, these zero trade flows may become positive and new trade relationship is established. In order to explain this phenomena, related research of heterogeneity trade developed on the basis of theoretical model and analyzed issues from the perspective of corporate behavior. The concept of dual trade margins arises. China's export trade has experienced unprecedented prosperity. The rate of export growth is very high. China thus became large trade nation. But experiencing world financial crisis, China's export trade is fragile. Meanwhile, with the fluctuation of China's export growth China's terms of trade deteriorated and trade gains reduced, which exposed deep-seated problems of China's export trade. With such realistic background, we decomposed China's export trade from the perspective of dual margins and analyze the constraints. Based on the analysis, we want to find solutions to the problems. As a reasult, the analysis in accordance with the needs of theory and practice.The existing research are almost about the concept, measurement methods, the factors and the effect, but the research based the data of China is not enough. The existing studies failed to integrate the phenomenon and China's export trade. Therefore, the constraints and its measures are also ignored. Based on the theoretical background and China's export practice the author decides to begin the research on constraints of dual margins and measures.There are five chapters in the dissertation. In the first chapter we introduce the background and the research train. In the second chapter we reviewed the relevant literatures and find the starting point of research on the basis of previous studies. This is very important for our following studies. The third chapter is the main part of this paper. We give a binary marginal statistical analysis of China's export from the perspective of product, corporate and national. We draw a conclusion that China's export growth is mainly driven by intensive margin. After that we decomposed China's export trade from product, corporate and nation levels. In the decomposition of product level we redefine the collection of export products to make up for the defect of HK index method. We decompose China's export into dual margins and do a further decomposition of intensive margin. We select a few major trading partners and decompose bilateral trade volume into dual margins. The result also shows that intensive margin is more important and the number of intensive marginal effect is stronger than the price effect, which shows that China's export has a character of high volume and low price. Besides we decompose China's export into dual margins from the perspective of enterprises and we find that intensive margin is more important too. The enterprise number of extensive margin is significantly higher than the product categories. Then we choose the United States and Germany to compare with China. We find that there are a lot of differences of the three countries. From this point of view, there exists obvious gap between China's export and the other two developed countries. In the fifth quarter of the chapter we further explore the dual marginal constraints of China's export according to the above initial decomposition and further decomposed results.In the fourth chapter we research the dual marginal factors affecting China's export from the product and enterprise levels. First of all, there are a lot of relevant factors, but it is not enough. We did an empirical research based on indicators of distance, the scale of importing country, multilateral trade resistance, labor productivity, shock and regional economic integration. The regression results show that size of market, labor productivity, distance, multilateral trade resisitance and shock have a negative influence to extensive margin and intensive margin. Regional economic integration and level of economic development have a positive effect on intensive margin. Size of market, labor productivity, distance and regional economic integration have a negative effect to extensive margin. The other index have a positive effect on extensive margin. On the other hand, we analyze the factors affecting enterprise survival rate, which will directly affect the enterprise number. We choose firm size, labor productivity, the industry average entry rate, industry-intensive, debt ratio and the nature of business ownership in the actual analysis process and do the research based on the method of Cox proportional hazards model.2Through the analysis, we find that firm size and labor productivity are likely to promote the enterprise survival, which is of 1% significance level. The rate of industry average entering and rate of enterprise survival have a negative effect of 1% significance level. Industrial concentration and the rate of enterprise survival play a positive role in promoting the rate of survival. At the same time, leverage, which is the financial indicator of the enterprise has a positive effect to corporate survival rate. Finally, in the fifth chapter we set two parts. In the first part we analyze the causes of China's export trade dual marginal constraints. Through the research we find that there are a lot of reasons. Finally, based on the above analysis we put forward the measures from three parts.