Study On The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Export Binary Margins

Since 2008,the global economic crisis and the European debt crisis have erupted one after another.The anti-globalization forces represented by the United States have risen.At the same time,China's economic restructuring reforms have also entered deep water areas,which has led to a marked increase in domestic economic policy uncertainty.The internal and external economic policy environment faced by exports as an important force driving China's economic growth has also become complicated.Therefore,it is very important to study the influence of economic policy uncertainty on China's exports.This paper firstly analyzes the mechanism of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the export dual margin by introducing the uncertainty of economic policy into the framework of heterogeneous enterprise theory.Based on the analysis above,we decompose China's export growth into extensive margin and intensive margin over the period of 1995-2014 by using export data between China and its trading partners.Then,we empirically study the impact of China's economic policy uncertainty on dual margin on the basis of extended gravity model.The research shows that:(1)Economic policy uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on the extensive margin,but the impact on the intensive margin is uncertain.(2)The sub-samples of the destination country where the continents are located and the degree of economic development are different,the economic policy uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on the extensive margin,but the impact on the intensive margin in different subsamples is different.(3)Before and after the financial crisis,the uncertainty of economic policy had a different influence on the export binary margin.Before the financial crisis,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the binary margin was not significant,but after the financial crisis,economic policy uncertainty had significant positive and negative effects on the intensive margin and the extensive margin,respectively.The above research conclusions help to understand the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the export binary margin and also provide an important basis for promoting China's foreign trade.