Research On Product Selection And Purchasing Forecast Of Industrial Goods Procurement Agent

Procurement agent is a new type of procurement mode under supply chain circumstance.Since the study of supply chain has been improved a lot and the practice has been deepen greatly during recent years,people have a better understanding of how to improve the efficiency of the supply chain.Meanwhile,more and more enterprises have been engaged in professional supply chain services.Industrial goods procurement agent provide one-stop supply chain service business for their customers,including industrial finance,product procurement,tender management,intelligent warehouse&distribution.However,with the rapid development of the procurement agent,the new business mode not only creates value for the entire supply chain,but also has encountered many problems.The rapid development brings uncertain risks to the procurement agent as well as the whole supply chain.Industrial goods procurement agent is a professional enterprise engaged in industrial purchasing agent service provider and executive.It also plays a role providing feedbacks and solutions to the problems.Industrial goods have various kinds and complex characters,and not all the industrial goods are suitable for procurement agent mode.Besides,due to the wide application of industrial goods in the field of manufacturing,it will cause great damage if a problem would arise.So it makes a difference to predict the purchasing quantity of industrial goods accurately for procurement agent.Based on the above analysis,this thesis is trying to study the product category selection and purchasing quantity prediction of industrial goods procurement agent,from the perspective of industrial goods procurement agency.The main work of this thesis are summarized as follows:(1)Introduction on the present situation of industrial goods procurement agent.Putting forward the problem of product selection and purchasing volume forecasting from the perspective of industrial goods procurement agent.Illustrating its research value and significance,and summarizing the related research status.(2)Study on the classification method of material procurement positioning.Apply the Kraljic matrix and the supply location model to determine the primary indexes of the product selection model of industrial goods procurement agent.Then the influence factors of industrial purchasing agent enterprises in the choice of industrial goods category were selected through the relevant literature review and in-depth interview.Besides,eight secondary indexes were confirmed through the expert scoring method.Finally a complete product selection model of industrial goods procurement agent was established through the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index,and the empirical analysis is carried out.(3)Based on the characteristics of industrial goods procurement agent,the trend of regression method,exponential smoothing method and gray forecasting method were used to forecast the purchasing volume of industrial goods procurement agent.Then,in order to improve the accuracy of forecasting,a combination forecasting model based on Shaply value is given with the empirical analysis is carried out.