The Factor Analysis Of Mortgage Backed Securities Credit Risk

Securitization of housing mortgage loan is very important to the introduction of the main meaning.For banks,housing mortgage loan securitization can disperse bank credit risk brought by the housing mortgage loan,it also can improve the liquidity of Banks' capital;Housing mortgage loan securitization can also promote the development of the real estate market,activate the financial markets;At the same time,the emergence of the securitization of housing mortgage loan also provides more choices for investors,is beneficial to optimizing the investment structure of investors.The current our country the development of housing mortgage loan securitization has paid off,more and more joint stock commercial Banks begin to introduce the securitization of housing mortgage loan business.Our country commercial bank housing mortgage loans and a growing amount of housing mortgage loan proportion of all loans are also on the rise,the increasing of the stock of housing mortgage loan provides a foundation for the development of securitization of housing mortgage loan security,it also means good prospects of the development of housing mortgage loan securitization,huge space for development.In recent years,the Chinese government strongly support the development of asset securitization,and asset securitization in the process of the relevant laws and regulations are perfect.In 2008 the us subprime crisis to remind people of housing mortgage loan securitization benefits at the same time,also pose risks.Housing mortgage loan securitization can increase and enlarge the influence of the housing mortgage loan credit risk,many scholars regard the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 due to the development of housing mortgage loan securitization,our country also to have suspended the securitization of housing mortgage loan business.But the root cause of the us subprime mortgage crisis is not the financial innovation product,the development of housing mortgage loan securitization,as a foundation for securitization asset and is not good control of the quality of the housing loan.Subprime lending itself credit quality existence question,and when the government changes in the interest rate control and the real estate market downturn,caused the subprime borrowers' repayment burden caused by the default rates and Banks'non-performing loans jumped sharply,and falling prices not only makes the borrower cannot by selling the property to repay the loan,also make the bank even auction houses cannot take back,make up the loss of the principal,thus causing a lot of the collapse of the banking institutions and financial market turbulence.America's subprime crisis hints at the same time in the development of housing mortgage loan securitization,must pay attention to risk control.Securitization of housing mortgage loan credit risk on the one hand,influenced by pooling loans quality,on the one hand,influenced by macroeconomic,and thus on the one hand,attention to the credit problem,the pooling loans on the one hand,to pay special attention to changes in the macroeconomic to guard against risks.This article first to the housing mortgage loan credit risk has made the brief description,including the characteristics of the securitization of housing mortgage loan credit risk,credit risk source,after a credit event occurs the payment order of the cash flow and its influence.Secondly using the method of literature review,from the Angle of the micro loan asset pool into the pool was analyzed,and the choice of summarizes the micro influence factors of housing mortgage loan credit status,and through the selection of three state-owned commercial Banks to issue 2015 housing mortgage-backed securities selection problem of loans to asset pool made a further analysis and illustration.Again using the multivariate regression model research affect securitization of housing mortgage loan basic asset pool defaults macroeconomic factors,this paper selects the jianyuan 2007-1 of housing mortgage-backed securities as the research object,choose between January 2008 and April 2008 monthly data for empirical analysis.The empirical results show that the loan interest rate,housing prices,inflation,economic growth,exchange rate,fiscal expenditure level has a significant impact on all of the underlying asset credit status.Finally,according to the conclusion in this paper,from the micro and macro and asset securitization operation mechanism three aspects gives the relevant policy recommendations.Most scholars qualitative introduced before the securitization of housing mortgage loan credit risk is relatively general,in this paper,on the basis of previous studies,the impact on the securitization of housing mortgage loan credit risk factors made a comprehensive summary and analysis.And because the securitization of housing mortgage loan are more emerging products,the most scholars doing macroscopic factors affect based asset securitization of housing mortgage loan default rate of empirical analysis to select the sample size is less,and the sample size of 100 in this paper,empirical research,the empirical results are reliable.In addition this paper introduces the exchange rate,fiscal spending to study its effects on the state of the housing mortgage loan securitization,and exchange rates,the level of financial support for the default rate has a significant correlation..