Research On The Factors Influencing The Credit Risk Of Mortgage Securitization In China’s Commercial Banks

As one of the most important financial innovations in twentieth Century,housing mortgage loan securitization has developed rapidly in recent years,and its development has always been the focus of attention.In this context,the introduction of mortgage backed securitization into China’s market is of great significance.The introduction of housing mortgage securitization can effectively disperse the credit risk of housing mortgage loans and improve the liquidity of bank funds;it can effectively promote the development of the real estate market and activate the financial market;it can also provide investors with more investment options,and then optimize the investment structure.With the development of China’s social economy,the real estate market is also showing a trend of hot development,making the scale of housing mortgage loans expanding.But in recent years,with the adjustment of China’s economic policy and the slowdown of economic growth,the potential risks of mortgage backed securitization are slowly beginning to emerge.The outbreak of the American subprime mortgage crisis has also made our country aware of the potential crisis of asset securitization.It is of great practical significance to the development of the securitization of the housing mortgage market in China to effectively evaluate these risks and to do a good job of prevention in combination with the actual situation of our country.This article first introduces the related concepts of housing mortgage securitization,including its participants,the general operation process and characteristics,and the sources and characteristics of the credit risk.Then,the factors that affect the credit risk of housing mortgage securitization are analyzed at a micro level,and three mortgage-backed securities issued by the state-owned commercial bank in 2016 are used as the research object,and the borrower’s default risk and theprepayment risk are further analyzed,and the borrower’s age and payment ability are summed up.The educational level,the ratio of income and liabilities,the ratio of the loan value of the basic assets and the degree of dispersion will affect the borrower’s breach of contract and the prepayment.Then we use multiple regression model to study the macro influence factors of borrower’s default risk and prepayment risk,and select the monthly data of the 2007-1 housing mortgage loan support securities from January2008 to October 2017,and draw a conclusion that the loan interest rate,exchange rate,GDP growth rate and national house for more than five years are concluded.The prosperity index,the industrial added value above the scale,the household disposable income,and the change of the state financial expenditure will all affect the borrower’s breach of contract and the prepayment.Finally,according to the analysis of the full text of the conclusion and from the borrower’s default risk,borrower’s prepayment risk and other participants’ credit risk three aspects of related risk prevention suggestions.