A Research On The Influence Of Short-term Capital Flows On The Exchange Rate Fluctuations Of RMB

In the post financial crisis era,the short-term international capital flow in and out frequently,and the scale is huge in China.At the beginning of financial crisis,the developed countries generally implement quantitative easing monetary policy(QE),what's more,due to China "Four Trillion" fiscal policy,huge credit scale and loose monetary policy,China short-term international capital inflows boom quickly.Recent years,on the one hand,the U.S.economy gradually get rid of the crisis,Federal Reserve announced its withdrawal from the QE and enter the interest rate rise cycle.On the other hand,due to the structural adjustment of domestic economy,Chinese GDP growth rate decline.This all make the short-term international capital outflows.The short-term international capital flow in and out of China has great impact on the RMB exchange rate.Thus,there is great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of short-term international capital flows on the RMB exchange rate volatility.This paper is divided into six parts:The first part is the exordium,which including the research background,the theoretical and practical significance of this paper,the summary and review of research results at home and abroad,the research content,structure and research methods,as well as the innovation and deficiency of this paper.The second part is the theoretical definition and theoretical analysis of the short-term international capital flows and the exchange rate of RMB,including short-term international capital flows and RMB exchange rate definition,short-term international capital flows theory and the RMB exchange rate decision theory.The third part elaborates the new characteristics and new trends of international capital flow in post crisis era and the enlightenment to China.This part includes new features and new trends of developed and emerging economies of international capital flows,compare the international capital flows of China to other countries'international capital flows,and draw the enlightenment to China.The fourth part is the current situation of China's short term international capital flow and its impact on the RMB exchange rate,which describes the current situation of China's short-term international capital flows and RMB exchange rate fluctuation.The impact of short-term international capital flows on the RMB exchange rate fluctuations includes direct and indirect effects.The indirect effects include the inflation,relative interest rate spread and expected RMB exchange rate.The fifth part is the empirical analysis of the impact of short-term international capital flows on the exchange rate of RMB.Using VAR model,econometrically analyse the impact of short-term international capital flows on the RMB exchange rate fluctuations.The sixth part is conclusion and policy recommendations,combined with the results of the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis,and provide the corresponding recommendations for China to cope with the impact of short-term international capital flows on the RMB exchange rate fluctuations.