The Measurement Of Real Estate Foam And Analysis Of Housing Price Influencing Factors

As the foundation of the national economy,China's real estate development started late,but it has gone through the initial stage,rapid development stage,and now it is on the progress of the transition to maturity,as well as become the engine which can promote national economic growth and maintain economic stability,one of the pillars gradually,always affecting the economic life of modern society.At present,the Chinese real estate industry is in the transition period of standardized and branding,and the real estate industry growth are also transforming from emphasizing on speed,scale to market segments and efficiency gradually.With the connection between industrialization and commercialization of residential housing closer and closer,residential real estate price,as an important economic leverage,plays an essential role in promoting the housing commercialize process.Especially in the current,private consumption become the biggest portion of housing market and the resident have become more and more concern about the real estate prices.Based on the existing research,this paper took Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces in Northeast China as examples.Firstly,it described the price,construction and sales of commercial housing.Secondly,it compared the real estate bubble measurement methods and chose the price-income ratio as the index to measure the real estate price bubble,and discussed the reasonable upper limit of the price to income ratio.Finally,we choose the income level,development cost,interest rate and other factors to establish the error correction model,and then analysis the long-time factors and short-term fluctuations which affect the real estate industry.Mainly we drew the following conclusions:First,from the time span,the real estate market of the three northeastern provinces in last fifteen years can be divided into three stages.The first stage is from 2001 to 2004,in this stage,the development of real estate market was relatively slow,the prices remained stable,and the amount of housing construction had no big fluctuations.The second phase is from 2004 to 2010,the real estate market during this time was in a stage of rapid development,and the area of housing construction and sales have achieved rapid growth,as well price growth relatively stable.In the third stage,real estate market began to appear stabilized from 2010 till 2014,especially reflected in the price.Second,the factors that affect the prices of three northeastern provinces are same.Generally the house purchase costs are mainly from construction costs,the cost of other assets.In long-term,the population density Rates' effect on price is significant,but in short-term it was not significant.This suggests that the rise in the short term residential housing demand will not cause prices to rise.At the same time,the elasticity of demand cause by trading volume will cause prices to fall.Growth of residents' purchasing power due to the overall economic development could not push housing prices in three northeastern provinces,no matter in long term or short-term,the impact was not significant.Also,using interest rates to adjust to prices is not an effective way in the long term effective;it can only alleviate the pressure on the real estate market temporarily.Third,the estate markets in three provinces have different degrees of foam compared to residents' purchasing power.But the speculation in real estate market of three northeastern provinces is not significant.As in the long term,the price of estate is affected not by interest rates,but by land development cost and residents' demand,which indicates that from the overall point of view,the real estate in three northeastern provinces is showing a healthy development state.