| In recent years,under the trend of economic globalization,international capital flows have been accelerating.As an emerging economy with rapid economic development,Vietnam is also facing a large inflow of international capital,especially in the real estate market.At present,Vietnam’s real estate market system is still not perfect.Under the realistic background of unreasonable relative price of real estate,it is of practical significance to deeply analyze and explore the impact of international capital inflow on its real estate price.Therefore,starting from the international capital flow in Vietnam’s real estate market,this paper studies the mechanism and dynamic relationship between the two from the macroeconomic perspective,so as to provide theoretical basis and reference suggestions for promoting the healthy development of Vietnam’s real estate industry and reasonably exerting the positive effect of international capital inflow.For the above series of questions,the research contents and purposes of this article mainly include the following points:Firstly,it gives a general description and analysis of Vietnam’s macroeconomic and foreign trade situation,the current situation and motivation of international capital inflow in Vietnam’s real estate market,and finds that the scale of operation of Vietnam’s real estate industry has significantly exceeded its economic situation,the two do not match,and the ratio of house price to income is much higher than the reasonable range.International capital,especially international direct investment capital,has been on the rise.This will provide a strong financial boost to Vietnam’s real estate market as well as a market bubble crisis.Secondly,based on the theory of international trade,this paper analyses the influence ways and mechanism between international capital and real estate price through model reasoning,and demonstrates that there is an interactive relationship between them.Subsequently,this paper uses VECM model to test the short-term and long-term equilibrium relationship between international capital flows and house price index,and further analyses its impact effect.While demonstrating the previous theoretical analysis,it also finds that short-term international capital inflows lead to rising house prices through the wealth effect caused by the increase of money supply and the transmission mechanism of credit liberalization,which conforms to the theoretical logic.Long-term international capital inflows will reduce housing prices,and play a restraining role in housing prices,which is in line with the actual situation.But on the whole,the international capital flow is not the most critical factor for the fluctuation of Vietnamese real estate prices.The inflow of international capital into the real estate market is not enough as a stable factor to support the rise of housing prices in Vietnam.On the other hand,changes in real estate prices in Vietnam will affect the scale and efficiency of international capital flows to a certain extent.The source of international capital flow of real estate is still the real estate market.As long as the price of realestate is stable,there will be no significant change in international capital flows under such circumstances.Finally,through the experience of China’s real estate international capital flow,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of adjusting macro-control policies,land and tax system,real estate financing channels and adjusting the openness of international capital. |
