Study On The Factors Affecting The Deviation Of Economic Growth Expectations

Economic growth is an objective description of the material achievement of human social and economic activities.In order to achieve better economic growth and make the process of economic growth in the direction of the original development,modern countries tend to implement a number of target constraints on their own economic growth processes in accordance with their own needs.Although the expected objectives of the proposed economic development plays a guiding role,there are some problems in the process of target setting.On the one hand,the establishment of economic growth goals exist the common phenomenon:"overweight layer by layer".On the other hand,there are some uncertainties in the development of the expected objectives.The actual growth of the economy can not be completely consistent with the goals.Generally there is a certain "deviation" between the actual growth rate and the expected goal.It is an urgent event to realize the goal of economic growth and to return to the level of potential economic growth,which is the current situation of reform,development and stability.Based on existing research and theory,this paper collects the government work report of 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2014 and extracts the expected target value of all the prefecture-level cities in each year.Then based on the full sample and the samples of the eastern,central and western groups,create an unbalanced panel model to systematically study the performance characteristics of the deviation of economic growth expectations and the influence mechanism of each factor.Finally,put forward some suggestions on the setting of economic growth target.The results show that by 2010 and before(except 2008),most of the prefecture-level cities have exceeded their expected economic growth.But from 2011 to 2014,most municipal governments can not complete the economic growth targets,and this proportion has increased year by year.This feature is slightly different from the provincial deviation.Based on the empirical study of the overall sample,there is a significant positive correlation between provincial deviation and municipal deviation.There is a significant negative correlation between the replacement of the party secretary and the deviation and a U-shaped relationship between the tenure of the party secretary and the deviation.But the mayor's replacementand tenure have no significant impact on the deviation.In other words,the secretary has a very prominent impact on economic growth.There is a significant negative correlation between the level of economic development and the deviation.And there is a significant positive correlation between the ratio of the secondary and tertiary industries to the GDP and the deviation.Based on the empirical study of the grouped samples,in the eastern and central regions,the impact of factors on the deviation of economic growth expectations are similar to that of the overall sample.But there is a significant difference in the outcome of the regression in the west.In the western region,there are only two factors:the provincial deviation and the per capita GDP level,which are significantly related to the deviation of economic growth target.This result provides new evidence for the regional differences in China's economic development.