A Study On The Relationship Between RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation And Sino-American Trade In Goods

With the increasing trade deficit between China and the United States,the depression of the international market and the development of trade protectionism,the total trade volume between China and the United States is growing rapidly,and it is also faced with the problem of imbalance in trade structure and increasing of the deficit.Many countries conclude that the RMB exchange rate is the mainly cause of the problem of Sino-US trade in goods,which led to controversy.Whether the RMB will affect the trade between China and the United States and its role is a matter of concern,so this article will study it in-depth.The impact of the exchange rate fluctuation of RMB involves many aspects,and the interaction of various factors has an impact on trade.Considering the relevant theory and research,this paper chooses the ARDL model and the corresponding ECM model from the perspective of local equilibrium,selecting the four variables of RMB exchange rate,RMB exchange rate fluctuation rate,trade side industrial added value and exchange rate reform as independent variables,And the impact of RMB level and vertical fluctuation on trade between China and the United States from the total trade volume and the level of trade volume.The study found that economic growth of trade partners can greatly promote the total trade in goods between China and the United States and the development of trade volume.The exchange rate of RMB has a significant inhibitory effect on the export of Sino-US goods trade,and its inhibitory effect is in the short-term and lagging period and is consistent with the long-term impact.The import has a small promotion effect in the short term and a negative effect in the lag period;from the sub-industry perspective,the RMB exchange rate is more likely to influence the primary products and primary processing industry significantly,and the impact of high value-added industries is smaller,to a certain extent,it can improve Sino-US trade in goods structure.The vertical fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has no significant effect on the trade between China and the United States,but from the sub-industry,it can suppress the low-end manufacturing industry in the short term and its lagging period.Exchange rate reform can be very small to promote the increase in the total trade in goods between China and the United States.From the sub-industryperspective,in long-term it tend to exacerbate the imbalance between the trade of primary products between China and the United States,and in the short term it tend to improve the imbalance of primary processing products between China and the United States.Based on the above analysis results can be found that the RMB level and vertical fluctuations can improve the goods structure on the Sino-US trade,although the exchange rate will slightly increase the trade gap between the two countries,it will not lead to such a rapid growth,To fundamentally solve the problem of the Sino-US trade in goods need to start with the real reasons.