Empirical Study On Commercial Banks'credit Risk Evaluation Of Manufacturing Enterprises In China

Commercial banks are the most important part of our financial system.Since the global financial crisis,China has slowed the pace of economic development along with the slow global economic recovery.The overall economy is weak and the number of bankruptcies in small and medium enterprises increases.At the same time,under the background of economic globalization,China's financial market has contacted more closely with international financial market.All kinds of financial innovation products have been introduced;the financial institutions of the mixed business model gradually formed.Since the 13th Five-Year Plan,China has continued to deepen the overall reform of the financial system as the focus.Therefore,China's commercial banks are facing increasing competition and challenges.Therefore,commercial banks have to strengthen their own ability to prevent all types of risks.At present,the main threats faced by commercial banks are operational risk,interest rate risk,market risk,credit risk,market risk and liquidity risk.Among them,the credit risk has great influence on the development of commercial banks.The traditional meaning of credit risk refers to the banks' loss of assets because of the debtors' default on the banks for their lack of capacity or repayment willingness.In the modern sense,it refers to the possibility of loss due to the default of the borrower or the market counterparty;that is,the credit risk includes not only the meaning of the traditional credit risk but also the change in the credit rating of the borrower.The change in capacity leads to the possibility of loss of market value of its debt.All along,China is a traditonal powerful manufacturing country.In recent years,China's GDP growth rate slowed down.The state of rapid economic growth in the past has also changed into high-speed growth.At the same time,China's manufacturing industry also began to enter a new stage as a result of changes from both the internal economic macroeconomic factors and the external world economic situation.Compared to the limelight of all kinds of emerging high-tech industry,the status quo of China's manufacturing industry can be described as precarious,difficult in the difficult before the line.Therefore,the credit risk prevention problem of manufacturing enterprises is worth the attention of commercial banks.This paper introduces the meaning and characteristics of credit risk fristly,then it makes a general description of the study about commercial banks' credit risk both at home and abroad.After introducing and comparing of the existing methods and methods of credit risk measurement,I choose Logistic Model,which is suitable for the present situation of our country,to make an empirical analysis on the credit risk of manufacturing enterprises.In the empirical analysis,83 high-risk enterprises and 83 low-risk enterprises are selected,as well as 30 financial indicators and 7 non-financial indicators respectively.The indexes were tested and analyzed by principal component analysis.Finally five principal components choosed to be used to establish the final Logistic regression model.It is found that the model has a high prediction accuracy.It is of practical significance for commercial banks to predict the credit risk of manufacturing enterprises.At the end of this essay,I put forward some suggestions on how to prevent and control the credit risk of commercial banks in China.