Research On Price Forecast Of Commercial Housing In Taiyuan City

Commercial housing market is an important part of the real estate market,commodity housing prices and economic and social development are closely related.Whether it is on the regional economic development,improve the living standards of residents,or to maintain social harmony and stability,commodity housing prices and their development trends are in a very important position.After the reform of the housing distribution system in 1998,the commodity housing market in Taiyuan City has been developing rapidly.The price of commercial housing has also continued to grow.The growth rate of the commodity housing has exceeded the growth rate of the residents' income.The price of commercial housing is also widely attention.Therefore,the analysis of the factors influencing the price of commercial housing in Taiyuan and predicting the trend of future house price can provide some reference for Taiyuan city government macro-control,developer investment decision-making and people's consumption,and can continue to stabilize the price of commercial housing by taking corresponding measures,To promote the healthy development of the real estate market.Based on the theory of supply and demand,this paper uses BP neural network as the research tool to study the influencing factors and future trend of commercial housing price in Taiyuan.First of all,a brief introduction to the Taiyuan commodity housing market supply and demand and price conditions.Secondly,it analyzes the influencing factors of Taiyuan commercial housing price from qualitative and quantitative aspects.Qualitative aspects mainly from the supply factors,demand factors and the supply of housing,demand,the impact of macroeconomic factors in three aspects of analysis.On this basis,select 10 indicators as the impact factor.Through the correlation analysis of the factors,it is concluded that the GDP,the total number of households,the construction area of residential houses,the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the investment of real estate development are the main influencing factors of commercial housing prices in Taiyuan.Thirdly,through the establishment of BP neural network forecasting model,the price of commercial housing in Taiyuan is simulated and predicted.The forecast results show that the average price of commercial housing in Taiyuan 2017,2018 and 2019 is 8043.27 yuan / square meter,8458.47 yuan / square meter,8767.83 yuan / square meter.It can be concluded that the future price of commercial housing in Taiyuan City will continue to show upward trend,but the rate of increase will tend to slow down and relatively stable.Finally,in view of the development trend of commercial housing prices in Taiyuan,the author puts forward some suggestions on stabilizing the prices of commercial housing in Taiyuan from three aspects: government,real estate development enterprises and other market elements.For example,The government should correctly play the role of macro-control;developers should control the scale of development,and actively reduce the development costs;consumers should maintain a rational,public media play a correct role of public opinion and so on.