Study Of Factors Influencing And Prediction For Iron Ore Price

In recent years, because of the iron and steel industries developed rapidly, the consumption of iron ore resources increased quickly. The domestic iron ore price rose sharply while the international price of iron ore rose rapidly. So metallurgical mining industry' profits increased significantly in a good situation. At the same time, iron and steel enterprises were facing the crisis of rising cost. The future iron ore price has an important impact for China's iron and steel industries in sustainable development, it is necessary to study the factors influencing of iron ore price in-depth.Factors influencing and prediction for iron ore price was studied deeply in this paper, using economics, systems engineering and computer technology, and other theories and methods.The main work and the research results are as follows:(1) From the market economics point of view, the current world iron ore market is not fully competitive oligopoly market, the international price of iron ore isn't determined depend on the market, but by the three major producers of iron ore that the Australian RTP, BHP and Brazil CVRD negotiate with the needs.(2) Based on prices of resources theory, the marginal cost of iron ore, market interest rates and inflation rate are advanced as the three factors influencing of iron ore price.(3) The reasons for the rising price of iron ore are studied in-depth. The domestic iron ore demand is rising because China's steel output growth rapidly. China's iron ore can not meet the needs of rapid development of iron and steel industry, so the price of iron ore will continue to rise.(4) The price of iron ore forecast model is found based on BP neural network theory. China's iron ore prices and its factors influencing data between 1988 to 2007 year is the samples, the simulation experiments and iron ore price forecast research is fulfilled by using Matlab.The marginal cost of iron ore, market interest rates, inflation rates, domestic consumption of iron ore, domestic supply of iron ore and the international agreements price are fix upon as the main factors influencing of the price of iron ore in this paper. Using factors influencing as input variables, the price of iron ore as output variable presents model, the results show that the model has a satisfactory forecasting ability.