Research On Influencing Factors Of Commodity Housing Price And The Bubbles In Xi'an City

Since the cancellation of the welfare housing policy in 1998, housing investment and housing sales has been increased year by year, the house industry has become an important pillar industry of China. With the climbing of housing price, some problems appear. For examples, the relation of supply-demand turns tense, the structure of house supply is not reasonable and the increasing speed of housing price is too fast. The housing market of some cities even exist serious pricing bubbles. The housing price related problems become hotspot issues concerned by the general public. Do the housing market exists bubbles? What influence and decide the housing price?At present, many domestic scholars made a lot of qualitative analysis about housing price bubbles, with little research of the degree. Moreover, the present studies have confined to unspecified qualitative analysis and the single-factors effect, which lacks the quantitative analysis of multi-factors; the empirical analysis methodologies and models of present studies are also improper in some ways.So it is hard to known the accurate status of housing market, and which factors are decisive one. in this paper, some useful attempts are made in order to solve these problems.Firstly, the thesis use the cobweb model discusses the decided mechanism of housing prices, and from two aspects of supply and demand, analysis on the impact of house prices of various factors and the general model of commodity house prices.Secondly, the thesis use stepwise regression method to analysis the house price, it is concluded that the three significant influence factors of house prices:land price and residents' disposable income and consumer price index (CPI). After that, the influence of these three factors and influential way are analyzed.Thirdly, based on the analysis of housing bubbles, a comprehensive analytical system has been established to measure the housing price bubbles of Xi'an housing market from the year of 1998 to 2009,The results show that form 1998 to 2008 the housing market runs well, and existing mild bubbles in 2009.Finally, according to the empirical research results, some useful suggestions are put forward to macro-control policy of xi'an house market.