Research On Risk Conduction Of Grain Supply Chain Based On SIR Model

As one of the most basic consumer goods and the most important strategic materials,grain is always protected by governments all over the world,since the safety of the grain supply relates to the national stability and social stability.However,compared with the general industrial product supply chain,there is significantly weak quality in every link of grain supply chain.The structural defects of the grain supply chain make the chain be highly susceptible to the complex external environment and the internal risk and this result seriously affects the security and stability of grain supply.There might be many factors should be considered,but the low supply chain management ability of each grain enterprise is the main reason.Therefore,improve the ability of supply chain management and enhance the risk resistance ability of the grain supply chain is one of the important ways to protect he safety of grain at the present stage in China.This article analyzes the causes of frequent occurrence of grain supply chain risk from the perspective of complex network: the characteristics of small world network and the characteristics of Scale-free network are low in the grain supply chain.The lower characteristics of small world network shows that the grain supply chain operation of supply chain integration degree is low,which easy to cause outbreaks of supply chain risk;and the lower characteristics of Scale-free network shows the low supply chain management capabilities of the grain supply chain core enterprise,which can’t build efficient supply chain risk early warning and emergency system to prevent the spread the grain supply chain risk.On the basis of this analysis,this article simulates the process of the grain supply chain risk transmission by using SIR model and to verify the supply chain management capabilities have influence on the spread of the risk.Then,the results prove that strong ability of supply chain management could guarantee the stability of the grain supply chain operation and the supply of grain security and stability through integrating of the grain supply chain,building efficient supply chain risk early warning and emergency system,which can effectively restrain the supply chain risk transmission.Finally,this article puts forward the grain supply chain the corresponding risk control mechanism based on the results of SIR model.