Research On The Influence Of The Change Of Social Financing Structure To The Financial Stability In China

Financial stability plays a more and more important role in economic growth and social stability.In 2007 the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the financial crisis swept the world,leading to the stock market shocks,many investment funds of bankruptcy,the economic recession in Europe and America and developing countries economic development,financial stability is further attention to the importance of remarkable.With the development of financial globalization and financial reform,innovation of financial products and financial tools in the financial market subject species emerge in an endless stream,also the rapid expansion of the overall size of the financial market has become more and more large,on one hand the structure of financial market,more reasonable allocation of resources more fully and financing channels are further added,on the other on the one hand,due to the current financial supervision system of our country is not perfect,hidden in the daily financial transactions to enlarge the potential financial risks also speed,financial instability,constantly threaten the stability of financial system.This paper first reviewed the relevant literature on social financing structure and financial stability,by combing the literature,the combination of theory and empirical methods,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods from social financing structure change analysis,summarized our country nearly ten years of decline,the traditional social financing structure financing direct financing to rise and the shadow banking financing expansion characteristics,introduces the concept and connotation of financial stability measures,combined with China's actual economic and financial situation and the availability of data,from the three aspects of the macroeconomic environment,financial market,financial institutions choose new loans,interbank lending rates,the average price earnings M2/GDP,SSE the rate of commercial housing sales price,foreign exchange reserves,the RMB real effective exchange rate index,import and export trade balance eight basic indicators,Using principal component analysis method for the synthesis of financial stability index to measure the stability of China's financial situation,and then analyzes the influence of social financing structure change on financial stability from the aspects of theory,from four aspects of financial institutions,financial markets,financial regulatory and economic environment to explore the mechanism of its effects,then by using the SVAR model.Grainger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition of variables,empirical analysis of the impact of social financing structure change on financial stability,the decline in the proportion of direct financing,the traditional financing accounted for the rise and the large-scale expansion of the shadow banking impact on financial stability,extensive and profound and lasting,volatility can not be ignored,the regulatory authorities should improve the supervision and expand the scope of regulation,to take regulatory measures targeted.Finally,combined with China's actual situation,from the optimization of the internal management of financial institutions,improve the competitiveness of the banking system;improve the structure of capital market,the development and innovation of financial system;establishing and perfecting the regulation of the shadow banking system,effectively guide the service economy;strengthen the coordination and cooperation of financial supervision,effectively preventing financial risks and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions in four aspects.