Research On The Impact Of Shadow Banking On The Financial Stability In China

After the global financial crisis caused by American subprime crisis in 2008,the shadow banking which was considered to be the important clause of the crisis,has attached the attention of the world.In recent years, shadow banking developing rapidly in our country, has become an important part of the financial system in China.On the one hand, the shadow banking system as a complement to traditional commercial banks in China has a positive effect of improving social financing system and promoting financial innovation.On the other hand,shadow banking with its low transparency and less regulation characteristics brings great risks.It weakens the macroeconomic regulation and control effectiveness,and thus influences financial stability.Therefore,research on the impact of shadow banking on the financial stability in China has important theoretical significance and practical value to a healthy and orderly development of the financial system in our country.On the basis of the research at home and abroad, this paper uses the combination of qualitative and quantitative, theory and empirical methods to research the impact of shadow banking on the financial stability.First of all, the article discusses shadow banking and financial stability theoretically,explains the the impact of shadow banking on the financial stability from two aspects of positive and negative influence,and the threshold effect between the two is put forward.Then, the article determines the composition of the shadow banking system, defines the scope of the shadow banking more comprehensively, and the 2001-2014 shadow banking scale is evaluated.On this basis, combining with the quarterly data of financial stability index, nonlinear regression model is established, and verified the existence of the threshold effect.The empirical results show that there is an inverted u-shaped relationship between shadow banking scale and financial stability and a threshold effect between them.The threshold effect shows that when shadow banking relative scale is less than 69.1%, the shadow banking expansion will enhance the level of financial stability and when the shadow banking relative scale is larger than 69.1%, the shadow banking expansion will lead to a decline in financial stability.In late 2014, shadow banking relative scale is 80.7% after seasonal adjustment.It has exceeded the threshold and conclude that the current shadow banking development shows negative influence for financial stability as a whole.Therisk should be vigilant.But because of its rationality, relevant departments not only should not suppress its development, but also support its development. The crux of the problem lies in how to regularize its development,how to foster strength of a complement to traditional commercial banks and how to avoid weakness of risk-taking.At the end of this paper,it puts forward some countermeasures to regulation from three aspects of establishing the macro-prudential regulation system, accelerating construction of the supporting system and strengthening internal risk control and information disclosure of the shadow banking.The innovation of this article is that the statistical scope of this article is broader than most of the past research and the article only calculates the asset data to avoid the repeated calculation, and then establishes a nonlinear regression model.By using less empirical analysis,it is concluded that there is a threshold effect between shadow banking scale and financial stability.The shortcomings of this article are part of the data is based on estimation due to related data of the private lending is difficult to collect and the statistics may be inconsistent due to shadow banking is supervised respectively and the regulators are relatively independent.So the lack of long-term,continuous and accurate statistical data make the empirical analysis results have some deviations.In addition, because of the limit of research capacity, the empirical model also needs further perfecting. In the future,these weaknesses will be improved with the constant improvement of the shadow banking data.