Effect Of The Change Of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Of The Manufacturing Industry's Export Trade

Since the reform and opening up,with the virtue of its traditional comparative advantage,the manufacturing industry through continuous development,stimulates the development of export trade,improve China's trade balance,and plays an irreplaceable role in China's sustained and stable economic operation.With the decline of the manufacturing industry's own advantages and the constant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate,the pressure that manufacturing export trade facing is also increasing.Under the dual pressure environment at home and abroad,some of the problems in the development of manufacturing gradually emerging.The exchange rate policy is an important comprehensive price index in foreign trade,execute the price conversion function and played an important role of leverage in regulating the balance of payments.Since the exchange rate reform in 2005,RMB exchange rate continues to rise.In the current state attaches great importance to the direction of the development of manufacturing industry,study the exchange rate on the impact of manufacturing export trade is particularly important.In this paper,under the above background,use the data after the exchange rate reform in 2005 to analyze the impact of the exchange rate of China's manufacturing exports from the Angle of the industry's real effective exchange rate.The main contents include the following aspects: Firstly,analyzes the scale of exports and export structure of the present situation in export manufacturing;pressure the manufacturing exports faced,export processing trade accounted for,and regional development analyses the manufacturing industry.Secondly,analyzes the impact of exchange rates by price conduction effect on a country's export trade and export trade structure.Thirdly,compare the difference between the real effective exchange rate of different industry and BIS real effective exchange rate.After using the 10 years panel data of exchange rate from 2005 to 2014,using the first difference GMM method to analyze the difference between the BIS real effective exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate of manufacturing industry on export trade,and the difference effect the real effective exchange rate of the manufacturing industry caused between high and low technology industries export Trade.Finally,empirical research the following conclusions: First,from an overall perspective,the existence of exchange rate movements and the development of manufacturing exports negatively correlated,and there is a lag effect which called “J-curve effect” exists.Second,there is a difference between the BIS real effective exchange rate and real effective exchange of industry in interpretation efforts on manufacturing exports trade aspects.Third,the real effective exchange rate of industry inhibited the development of low-technology industry exports,but effect on exports of high-tech industry does not exist.Finally,policy recommendations based on the situation of China's manufacturing export and the effect the exchange rate caused.