The Study Of Impact On China's Export Trade Of Manufacturing Of The RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes

Exchange rate is one of the important indicators of a country's national economy,changes in the exchange rate for a country's economy have a large impact on the economic development of a nation especially on foreign trade.China's gross domestic product(GDP)is 67.67 trillion yuan in 2015,increased by 6.9% compared with 2014,slowly slow growth than in the past decade.And as an important measure part of GDP is China's foreign trade that has been to a big impact,especially is the export trade of the manufacturing industry.Exchange rate revaluation since in 2005,exchange rate is 8.1917 yuan to one dollar in 2005 to 6.3493 yuan to one dollar in 2015,had have risen about 22.49%.So,whether the manufacturing for export will be affected by the exchange rate and what is the influence degree.These problems needs to be studied.Based on this background,with the influence of RMB real effective exchange rate changes on manufacturing exports for the main line of study,combining theoretical and empirical.The article first elaborated the exchange rate and the related theory of import and export,summed up the latest research results,for the empirical development has a theoretical basis.Subsequently,the article describes the situation of China's manufacturing industry,using the August 2005 to June 2016 the actual effective exchange rate and manufacturing exports monthly data,by establishing the model,using the time series analysis method to explore the changes of the RMB exchange rate on the overall impact of manufacturing export trade in our country.Second,the establishment of a fixed effect panel model,regression analysis by the panel,say what kind of niche manufacturing industry are greatly influenced by the exchange rate and different manufacturing should be how to deal with the different impact.Finally it is concluded that whether long-term or short-term,the influence factors of Chinese manufacturing exports,the RMB real effective exchange rate is a significant factor and the higher the technical level of manufacturing,its exports under the influence of the RMB real effective exchange rate changes is smaller,conversely,the greater.Therefore,we should effectively use the exchange rate mechanism reform to accelerate the adjustment and transformation of China's manufacturing industry.In the end,the paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions on the influence ofexchange rate on China's manufacturing industry.