Analysis Of The Impact Of Exchange Rate Changes And Export Tax Rebate Rate Changes On Machinery Manufacturing Exports

Export tax rebate policy is a part of tax system,referring that a country and region in order to encourage exports,increase the competitiveness of their products in the world market,to be returned the domestic enterprises to export products in the domestic production and circulation of indirect tax paid,so that indirectly affect the price of the product and achieve the purpose to promote the development of export trade.Export tax rebate policy is carried out formally in our country since 1985,as a policy tool to promote the development of export trade,export tax rebate policy in China's foreign trade development,industrial structure adjustment and growth of foreign exchange,and other fields has played a significant adjustment and improvement.As same as export tax rebate policy,the RMB exchange rate policy has similar effect,play an adjustment foreign trade important leverage role.Exchange rate changes by influencing the relative price of products in the international market and exports and industrial structure adjustment of the enterprise,and then to the domestic and external economic activities affect the balance of trade development.Export tax rebate policy and RMB exchange rate policy has the similar effect in regulating the export trade development,therefore,it is necessary to analyze and study the two for export trade influence and the relationship between them.Decades of reform and opening-up,China's machinery manufacturing export trade with the help of a good international economic situation and relevant national policies,the development which progresses by leaps and bounds.Based on mechanical manufacturing industry in our country as the research object,this paper analysis the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate changes and industry export tax rebates for mechanical manufacturing exports.Total exports in 1985,only $770 million,and$964.36 billion in 2012,exports of the country up to 47%of the total amount of export,but also accounts for 17.51%of global market share,has become the world's largest exporter of machinery manufacturing in China.Total exports in 2015 than in 2014,though,but it is still as high as $1.05912 trillion.Machinery manufacturing industry in the national economy has occupied half,become our country modernization,industrialization and an important symbol of comprehensive national strength,sustained and healthy development of the it directly related to the healthy development of national economy.Machinery manufacturing industry as this stage of the backbone,to develop the strategic industry,covering fields widely,industry correlation degree is high,the development of the industry has significant stimulating effect to our country economic growth,but also promote the our country industrial structure optimization and upgrading industrial technology level.Therefore,choose to major in mechanical manufacturing industry as the research object in this paper.Since the 2009 financial crisis,the global economic is still weak,external demand growth is slow,and the international situation is more complex,the new trade protectionism in the global recovery and a sign of growing,machinery manufacturing industry in our country foreign trade environment is still very serious.In the case of weak external demand,if machinery manufacturing export tax rebate policy can and build a better coordination between the RMB exchange rate policy mechanism,optimization of the two combinations,so to promote the development of mechanical manufacturing exports,to eliminate or avoid the uncertainty of external market has a certain value.At first,this paper theoretically analyzes the RMB exchange rate changes and the change of export tax rebates on exports trade mechanism and the influence of the transmission path,thus the econometric analysis model established in this paper.Thus to mechanical manufacturing related data,respectively from the Angle of impulse response analysis of the mechanical manufacturing exports to the response of the RMB exchange rate changes,changes in export tax rebates,export tax rebates and the relationship between the RMB exchange rate,finally has carried on the variance decomposition.Measurement results show that the two policy tools have a large influence on export trade,and the effect of export tax rebate policy is bigger.At the same time,the export tax rebate policy in the short term for a large impact on mechanical products exports,and the influence of the exchange rate is a long-term.Therefore,when choosing control of mechanical products export trade,export tax rebate policy should be limited options.Finally,this paper summarizes the empirical testing of relevant conclusions,and in view of the export tax rebate policy and RMB exchange rate policy coordination use put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.