| Economic reform and opening up policy of Deng Xiaoping as the representative of the new governm ent,the Chinese econom y from the traditional planned econom y to gradually enter the market economy,the coordination of relations of production and productivity have improved,China's economy has entered a rapid development period.The rapid growth of economic growth,national economic construction has made great progress,but the real economy is also an urgent need to develop the capital m arket in order to support China's real econo mic take-off,but because of the immaturity of China's economic system was established in the real econom y and the financial coordination market is not tight enough,especially imperfect capital m arket development has been the form ation of the national econom ic development constraints?Capital Market Research,Research Information laws Shanghai Composite Index fluctuations and econom ic development entities correspondence between the guiding investors to invest in securities of great reference value.The securities market is the advanced stage of economic development entities to capital requirements of the product,the healthy developm ent of the re lationship between capital m arkets to the real economy,macroeconomic stability to stable and healthy developm ent,and promote the establishment of a deep relationship to the ca pital development of the socialist market economy,stock market research vo latility factors and trends of national economic construction has a m ajor role,has important practical significance seen stable development of the securities market,and therefore the stability of the stable development of capital m arkets,the stock m arket price index fluctuations become macroeconomic research an important tool.Many factors Shanghai securities price volatility.In order to be studied,th is paper microeconomic factors fluctuations and macroeconomic impact of l isted companies do both separately discussed.Important factors that influe nce a company's basic business,the investors sentiment and investment preferences are affecting the company's stock price fro m the micro level;Similarly,the governm ent's industrial policy,economic policy,economic development speed of the macro level can influence the price of securities fluctuation trend.This article to do empirical research on the influence factors of the volatility of the securities trend by factors of SSE Composite Index analysis.?The first step,this pap er chooses 19961 January to December 2013 monthly macroeconomic variables(economic indicators selected major government spending,money supply,consumer price index,the total import and export)data to do the study.First object of study by PP unit test,then th e test results of the m odel number on the data processing and logarithm ic differential processing.Then use after OL S regression of basic statistic al variable processing model causality test p rimarily through Granger test.After further exam ination of the overall regression m odel,explanatory variables f rom the test and Gr anger causality is in terpreted causality between the variables.Finally,we use vector autoregression(VAR)rate of return on the S hanghai Composite Index fluctuations and exponent ial average monthly earnings volatility starting to calculate the fluctuating data and volatility correlation,volatility composite index card on the associated proof model da ta between and China and there is a lin k macroeconomic factors: fluctuations in the trend of the stock market is not affected by national public expenditure growth,the Shanghai composite index volatility and not affect the relative value of real estate sales data,the significant relationship between the two is not obvious,fluc tuations in the price of the consum er price index fluctuations have little influence on the Shanghai composite index,significantly affect the relationship between the two,the relative value of research by the CPI forecast to further fluctuation of Shanghai composite index.Features China's capital market,the speculative atmosphere of relatively strong retail chase sell liqu idity factors active securities market,stock m arket investment income investors to invest in the stock market is a loss of a large number of general earnings in China's stock market They are: is a flat seven earned two losses.Through the factors influencing the trend of China' s Shanghai stock market securities analysis concluded: The main reason is the loss of ordi nary investors is the lack of i mpact on the Shanghai Composite Index Volatility factor in lack of understanding,lack of understanding of China' s securities market is unique,a nd the lack of securities investment theory knowledge learning system,the lack of investm ent securities risk control,lack of investment securities stop loss discipline correct understanding? The combined effects of the Shanghai index fl uctuations complex,the main factors the article index volatility through research into the syndr ome of both m acro and micro,from the micro level,investment fundamentals of the company,operating efficiency is good or bad,from the m icro appetite of i nvestors will level fl uctuations of the Shanghai composite index;from the macro level,national economic policies,mainly due to fluctuations in the index card on th e degree of macroeconomic climate factors.The main idea of this article is first choice for the study selected the Shanghai Composite Index,SSE Composite Index of some economic variables affect the model to model estimation and corr elation test.To demonstrate the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock index,th e article using the least squares m ethod on the related factors af fect the Shangha i Composite Index on regression testing,statistical tests.S tatistical results showed that: the g rowth rate of China's macroeconomic,monetary supply adequacy of funding,the consumer index,the RMB against the US dollar d ue to these factors impact on the trend of China' s securities market is significant. |
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