| Since the Chinese Reform and Openness,manufacturing development in China has been faced with great problems,such as big but not strong,weak competition ability,inputs and production process of low-end locking,manufacturing development model obviously lags behind the economic development level,need transformation and upgrading.The development and agglomeration of producer services can promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing,it plays an important role in the production efficiency,the industrial structure optimization,environment-friendly level and society-oriented level of manufacturing.The transformation and upgrading of manufacturing can also affect the development and agglomeration of producer services in some ways.Based on the New Economic Geography,Economic Systems Theory,Econometrics,System Dynamics and so on,firstly,reviews producer services agglomeration,manufacturing transformation and upgrading,their interactive effect mechanism and the present research status;Second,using Krugman concentration index to measure producer services agglomeration degree,and decomposed the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing into two aspects: 1.transformation,which includes environmentally friendly and society-oriented;2.upgrading,which includes optimization of industrial structure and production efficiency,using sequential global principal component analysis to estimate the comprehensive index of manufacturing transformation and upgrading,then fitting analysis the agglomeration of producer services and comprehensive index of manufacturing transformation and upgrading;Third,build a big economic system which includes subsystems of producer services cluster,manufacturing transformation and upgrading,high-level manufacturing industrial structure,manufacturing production efficiency,environment friendly and society-oriented,discuss the influence factors of the six subsystems and hypothesized to them;Fourth,based on the related theory to construct econometric model of six subsystems,and then estimating the model,as well as coming to the conclusions;Fifth,combining with the theory of system dynamics,building cause and effect diagram and system flowchart of the big economic system,using the measurement results to assignment the equations of big economic system,then systematically simulating the interactive effect of producer services agglomeration and transformation and upgrading of manufacturing;Finally,sum up the conclusions related,and put forward the corresponding suggestion?Main conclusions:(1)Producer services agglomeration degree presents a steady upward trend,but with obvious regional differences,western coastal areas is greater than inland,show the weak positive correlation with the developing level of area economics.Comprehensive index of manufacturing transformation and upgrading showed a trend of stationary wave before rising fast,there are three areas take the lead in development,those are Yangtze River Delta,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Pearl River Delta,other region follow the trend of development.Producer services agglomeration degree fits manufacturing transformation and upgrading comprehensive index well,their development trend are similar,proving there is a positive influence between producer services cluster and manufacturing transformation and upgrading further more.(2)Manufacturing transformation and upgrading have a huge demand of producer services,thus promote it's development;In turn,producer services industry cluster deepen the specialization of manufacturing,reduce the transaction costs,promote the technological progress and innovation of manufacturing,and promote manufacturing transformation and upgrading.Manufacturing transformation and upgrading and producer services agglomeration form a positive correlation of interaction system,and technological progress,innovation investment,capital investment,knowledge spillover and so on are the important factors of the system.(3)Building a interactive effect system simulate model,simulating producer services agglomeration degree and comprehensive index of manufacturing transformation and upgrading from 2003 to 2014,the simulation results highly fit the actual value.Adjusting any equation coefficient of factors in model,will lead the change of producer services agglomeration degree and comprehensive index of manufacturing transformation and upgrading,prove the existence of interaction between producer services agglomeration and manufacturing transformation and upgrading. |
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