| The strategy of "the Belt and Road Initiative" has been put into all-sided imple-mentation stage in 2016. Trade and investment with the "the Belt and Road Initiative" area will become the focus among the world. Kazakhstan, as one of the core countries of the ancient Silk Road and new Silk Road Economic Belt, will attract the world's at-tention once again. Geopolitical strategy and rich resource are considered as the syn-onymous of Kazakhstan. With the construction of "the Belt and Road Initiative", in-vestment and trade will become the new engines to promote the development of the Kazakhstan economy. According to the statistics, since 2005, Kazakhstan has been the top five countries of absorbing China's outward foreign direct investment (COFDI) in "the Belt and Road Initiative" area. COFDI flows in Kazakhstan has reached to $2.996 billion in 2012, which was the first place in "the Belt and Road Initiative" area. And Kazakhstan has become one of the major countries of absorbing COFDI. The complexi-ties arise, e.g. which industries are chose to invest in Kazakhstan? Which industries should be avoided? How to achieve industrial tie-in with China?From the perspective of industry, this paper took Kazakhstan as the research object, based on the product life cycle theory, small scale technology theory and comparative advantage theory, by analyzing the industries of COFDI in Kazakhstan, and China's and Kazakhstan's industrial structure, summarizing the present situation and the prospect of the industries of COFDI in Kazakhstan. Based on the previous anlsysis, the paper put forward suggestions for COFDI in Kazakhstan and provided theoretical support to real-ize the industry tie-in between China and Kazakhstan. In this paper, the data sources mainly are get from three channels:statistical yearbook, including investment bulletin, China Statistical Yearbook, Kazakhstan Statistical Yearbook; official website data, in-volving the Central Bank of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Bureau of statistics, the Heritage Foundation statistics, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce "going out" public service platform statistics, the World Bank statistics and UNCTAD statistics; China, Kazakh-stan and the world map data are from GADM database. Two kinds of research ap-proaches are involved in the paper:qualitative and quantitative. Through the literature analysis the research subject was determined; cluster partition was made for industry categories; the complementary relationship of industries were measured through the sta- tistic of industries, export products and labor cost; Granger causality analysis was used to analyze investment benefit. With the help of the above data and methods, it was conducted indepth discussions that the industrial structure of COFDI in Kazakhstan, the industry complementary and industry tie-in between China and Kazakhstan. The con-clusions are as follows:Firstly, by analyzing the industries of Kazakhstan's foreign direct investment (FDI) and COFDI in Kazakhstan, it has been that:(1) Since 1991 Kazakhstan's FDI flows appear fluctuant increasing, and FDI stock has maintained a rising trend; Kazakhstan's FDI stock from China is in the forefront of "the Belt and Road Initiative" areas. (2) In Kazakhstan, the industries which absorb the most FDI are the scientific research and technical services industry and mining industry. The next are manufacturing industry, wholesale and retail industry, architecture industry and financial industry. COFDI in Kazakhstan mainly concentrates on mining industry, manufacturing industry, wholesale and retail industry and leasing and business services industry. Different from the devel-oped countries, COFDI in Kazakhstan concentrates on mining industry, manufacturing industry; the field of scientific research and technical services and financial services are less. The advantage of China's industry is not prominent when China invests in Ka-zakhstan.Secondly, by measuring the industrial complementary between China and Kazakh-stan, it has been found that:(1) Overall, China's industrial structure has changed con-stantly, the proportion of the first industry declines, manufacturing industry still ac-counts for a large proportion in the second industry, the tertiary industry is blossoming, wholesale and retail, finance and real estate maintain the strong development momen-tum. Industry is the major sector in Kazakhstan. While measures have been taken to ad-just the industrial structure, it remains imbalance. (2) The analysis of industrial structure and export products structure between Kazakhstan and China show that there is strong industrial complementary. The industries which China maintains strong competitive are Kazakhstan's relatively weak industries, such as manufacturing; the industries which China has weak competitiveness are relatively strong in Kazakhstan, such as mining. By measuring the comparative advantage of specific industry, found that:China's public management and social organization, education, health, social security and social wel-fare keep comparative advantage. Kazakhstan's agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, mining and wholesale and retail industry own relatively comparative ad- vantage. Other industries would alter, but China maintains mostly comparative ad-vantage.Thirdly, by analyzing the present situation and prospect about direct investment industry selection between China and Kazakhstan, the conclusions are:(1) Comparing industries of COFDI in Kazakhstan and their advantages and disadvantages, COFDI in Kazakhstan presents the industrial investment structure that resource acquisition is giv-en priority, marginal industry, relative advantage industry and low threshold industry are supplemented. In addition, it is more obvious that the existing investment structure better promote Kazakhstan's economic development. (2) Under the background of "the Belt and Road Initiative" strategy, COFDI in Kazakhstan should gradually optimize the investment structure, so as to realize the resource acquisition, marginal industry transfer, comparative advantage as primary, industry leading effect as supplemented Kazakhstan demands to optimize the investment environment and implement policy constraints to guide the FDI flows, to reach the aim of improving the industrial structure.The innovation of this paper is that under the background of the "the Belt and Road", based on the aspect of geography, the comparative advantage of the industries are analyzed on the micro level to seek appropriate industrial benchmark choice and re-alize reasonable industry tie-in when China invests in Kazakhstan. |
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