The Economic Effect Of China-russia-Mongolia Free Trade Agreement And Its Construction Path Choice

"One belt and one road" is China's new open strategy to promote the sustainable development of the economy after the entry into the new normal economy,the optimal strategic positioning and selection to develop the relationship between China and its neighboring countries in the context of global economic rebalancing,is the important content of China's economic development and continued opening to the outside world in the current stage.Over the past decade,China's foreign trade has mainly concentrated in the southeast coastal areas of China,China is facing a greater risk of coastal strategic containment because of the over-reliance on the sea channel,thus it is urgent to expand land access,which is of great significance to re-build the global trade structure and achieve regional economic development.At present,China,Russia and Mongolia are promoting the integration of the Silk Road economic belt and the Eurasian Economic Union,and unanimously pushing the construction of the "China-Russia Economic Corridor".As the horizontal starting points of the "one belt and one road" strategy,all of the three countries have achieved great success in the field of economic construction and trade cooperation in recent years,but the regional economic cooperation between the three countries is relatively slow.All located in Northeast Asian economic circle,China,Russia and Mongolia are adjacent to each other.The development strategies of the three countries are highly fitted and the economic structure and resource endowment exhibits a strong complementarity,thus it is of great siginficance to the development of the three countries to explore the topic of constrcuting China-Russia-Mongolia FTA on the baisis of promiting the construction of China-Russia-Mongolia economic corridor.At present,China,Russia and Mongolia are in urgent need to establish the FTA to further consolidate the basis of economic and trade cooperation between the three countries.Based on the summary of the current status of economic and trade cooperation between China,Russia and Mongolia,this paper first analyzes the complementarity and competitiveness of the bilateral trade structure of the three countries by applying the revised specialization coefficient and the conformity coefficients.At the same time,on the basis of local equilibrium model and trade products being highly subdivided,this paper simulates the trade effects,tax effects and welfare effects on the three countries brought about by the establishment of the China-Russia-Mongolia FTA by using the SMART model.The empirical results show that China's agricultural products(categories 1-3),industrial products(categories 11-13)and miscellaneous products(category 20)will be affected by the rapid increase in imports from Russia and Mongolia after the start of the FTA and Russia's agricultural products,food tobacco,industrial products and leather products will suffer from greater impact from China and Mongolia.When the FTA is fully established,China's export growth will be the fastest,Russia's export benefits less and Mongolia benefites the least.But when it is considered on the whloe,the bilateral trade potential of the three countries can be effctively tapped if the China-Russia-Mongolia FTA can be established based on the existing economic and trade cooperation between the three countries and the export can also be elevated remarkably.FTA negotiations between China,Russia and Mongolia must firstly overcome the resistance from agricultural products and industrial products and other high-tax products sectors,and promot the trade volume of mineral products and mechanical and electrical products trade liberalization and facilitation.Attention should be paid to that the establishment of FTA is not merely an economic issue,but is also related to politics and the others.However from the perspective of economics,it is not only feasible but also beneficial to build the FTA on the basis of economy at present,and all the three countries should spare efforts to promote the FTA negotiations and construction as soon as possible.