The Influence Of Entry Into RCEP On China’s Agricultural Products Trade

In recent years,with the low development of the WTO negotiation,the governments of the world have turned the focus of economic and trade policy to the development of free trade area.After joined the WTO,China actively participate in the construction of a free trade zone with neighboring countries.Should China actively participate in the construction of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement(RCEP)to cope with the TPP,accelerate the development of agricultural products trade and promote regional economic integration.So it is necessary to study the effect of RCEP to the trade of agricultural products in China.This article first introduces the RCEP,the theory of regional economic integration,general equilibrium model(CGE)and the global trade analysis program(GTAP)model;secondly,This article analyses the current situation of China and RCEP members of the domestic agricultural trade from tariffs,non-tariff barriers and agricultural products complementary,and analyzes the necessity of China joining RCEP;The international competitiveness of agricultural products in China was evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method;then through the GTAP model to set up three cases to study the influence of RCEP on China’s agricultural products trade.The results show: Firstly,the RCEP is beneficial to the growth of the gross domestic product,the welfare level,the expansion of trade scale and better terms of trade.Secondly,tariff reduction of the nations in the RCEP,can increase the size of most agricultural products’ import and export.Slightly raised the overall output of agricultural products in China,but the effect is limited.Among them,the output of fruits and vegetables which have the international competitiveness increase significantly.The output of animal products,beverages and tobacco increase slightly,the output of cereal products,sugar products,fiber,milk which have a competitive disadvantage reduce significantly.The exports of agricultural products to Japan,and South Korea increase most obviously,The imports of animal products from Australia and New Zealand increase most obviously.Thirdly,through the comparative analysis we found that when joining RCEP,fruits and vegetables which with international competitiveness have more creation effect and trade diversion effect,exports increase greatly,but fiber which does not have the international competitiveness have less trade creation effect expand the trade deficit.Finally,this study also found that the trade diversion effect do not fit in the RCEP.When members of the RCEP cut tariffs,China will import grain and fruits from Australia the United States and other non RCEP countries.And this is contrary to the trade diversion effect theory`s conclusion.So,this study puts forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions: to actively participate in the RCEP negotiations,accelerate the process of RCEP negotiations;to improve China’s agricultural products export quality and international competitiveness by accelerating industrial upgrading;to do a good job in the RCEP negotiations.