Research On The Factors Affecting The Price Of Thermal Coal

Power coal is the core strategic resource of China's Power coal resources,accounting for the main body of Power coal.2016 years with the introduction of a series of national Power coal industry policy,the price of Power coal has also been significantly affected.In the context of the reform of the supply side of the Power coal,Power coal prices all the way up,and a change in the past years,the status of Power coal prices in the 2016 ushered in recent years,a relatively rare rise.The research on the fundamentals of the spot price of Power coal has also been paid more and more attention.In this paper,the fundamentals of Power coal are studied in detail.This paper analyzes the distribution of Power coal resources,the supply of Power coal,the demand of Power coal and the balance of supply and demand of Power coal.Further study the inventory of Power coal,dismantling the whole social stock of Power coal,Of the production of the pit inventory,Power coal transit port inventory and the consumption of Power coal to the national key power plant inventory;and then the cost of Power coal and profit and loss budget were analyzedBased on the study of the fundamentals of Power coal spot,this paper constructs the analysis framework of five factors of Power coal price influencing factors,and makes an empirical analysis on the influencing factors of Power coal price.The paper chooses the Power coal price index as the explanatory variable,the supply of Power coal,the demand for Power coal,the supply and demand gap of the Power coal,the whole social stock of the Power coal as the explanatory variable,the establishment of the measurement model,and the influencing factors of the Power coal price Empirical analysis.First of all,the five groups of variables were square root test,found that the five groups of variables for the non-stationary variables.If the five groups of variables directly regression analysis,there will be "pseudo-regression" phenomenon.Therefore,the five groups of variables to be differential to stabilize.On this basis,the cointegration test was carried out.The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between the inventory of the Power coal and the supply and demand gap of the Power coal.And through the Granger causality test found that the supply of Power coal,Power coal supply and demand gap and the Power coal inventory is the Power coal price index Granger reasons.And theprice of the Power coal and the price index of the Power coal are two-way causal relationship between the two.For the impulse response analysis to pave the way,the article established the VAR model.Through the impulse response function,it is found that the response of the Power coal supply and the supply and demand gap of the Power coal to the impact of the price index of the Power coal is relatively large.The pulse transmission of the variable is significant and the effect is more continuous.Finally,the paper draws the empirical conclusion of the factors affecting the price of Power coal and makes suggestions.